Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Lavked, while the market favors Inner Circle Academy (59%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #12 Group Stage
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Lavked (20%) · Lavked at 41¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Lavked
5
Lavked 20%
$1.3K
-$18.11
Research grade
NeutralLavked at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Inner Circle Academy 59%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Lavked. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR | Lavkedavg 39.4¢ | $902.1 | $893.69 | -$8.41 | 55% 121-99 (220) |
 VeryLucky888 | Inner Circle Academyavg 60.3¢ | $410.94 | $221.15 | -$5.23 | 58% 40375-29164 (69539) |
 Basquetipster | Inner Circle Academyavg 64¢ | $148.88 | $139.58 | -$4.65 | 69% 1651-759 (2410) |
AS astapzippo<$100 | Inner Circle Academyavg 61¢ | $21.35 | $21.35 | -$0 | 56% 2102-1638 (3740) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Inner Circle Academyavg 60.1¢ | $11.56 | $11.74 | +$0.18 | 54% 2554-2186 (4740) |
Invested
$902.1
Value
$893.69
PnL
-$8.41
Record
55%
121-99 (220)
VeryLucky888Invested
$410.94
Value
$221.15
PnL
-$5.23
Record
58%
40375-29164 (69539)
BasquetipsterInvested
$148.88
Value
$139.58
PnL
-$4.65
Record
69%
1651-759 (2410)
Invested
$21.35
Value
$21.35
PnL
-$0
Record
56%
2102-1638 (3740)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$11.56
Value
$11.74
PnL
+$0.18
Record
54%
2554-2186 (4740)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.