Map Handicap: IMP (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold paiN (67%) · paiN at 59¢ · $15K held · ends Oct 31

Imperial42¢paiN58¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

paiN

Consensus Traders

paiN 67%

Total Value

$15.4K

Combined PnL

$143.29

Smart Money Entry

54.4¢ → 58.5¢

+7% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralpaiN at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

paiN

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Imperial42%

paiN59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

paiN6 traders

Total Value$14.7K

Total Shares26,702

Combined PnL+$134.16

Imperial3 traders

Total Value$750.66

Total Shares1,657

Combined PnL+$9.12

paiN — 67%Imperial — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LL lllllllIlll	paiNavg 54¢	$8.1K	$8.2K	+$75.5	54% 299-250 (549)
VI vibing123	paiNavg 55¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$30.17	52% 1563-1445 (3008)
TH THEHIGHLIFE	paiNavg 55¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$26.1	54% 2476-2129 (4605)
JohnLKellyJrCTR	Imperialavg 45¢	$681.6	$689.33	+$7.73	52% 1228-1123 (2351)
AS astapzippo	paiNavg 53.9¢	$144.37	$144.72	+$4.37	56% 2143-1698 (3841)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Imperialavg 42.4¢	$48.3	$49.56	+$1.26	49% 12488-12848 (25336)
MA manoamano<$100	paiNavg 57.7¢	$48.97	$47.09	-$1.88	51% 465-450 (915)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Imperialavg 42¢	$11.64	$11.78	+$0.14	38% 377-620 (997)
WI Wiretransferxyz<$100	paiNavg 55¢	$10.87	$10.78	-$0.1	53% 752-664 (1416)

lllllllIlll

paiN

Invested

$8,141.13

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$75.5

Record

54%

299-250 (549)

vibing123

paiN

Invested

$3,318.97

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$30.17

Record

52%

1563-1445 (3008)

THEHIGHLIFE

paiN

Invested

$2,870.55

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$26.1

Record

54%

2476-2129 (4605)

JohnLKellyJrCTR

Imperial

Invested

$681.6

Value

$689.33

PnL

+$7.73

Record

52%

1228-1123 (2351)

astapzippo

paiN

Invested

$144.37

Value

$144.72

PnL

+$4.37

Record

56%

2143-1698 (3841)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Imperial

Invested

$48.3

Value

$49.56

PnL

+$1.26

Record

49%

12488-12848 (25336)

manoamano<$100

paiN

Invested

$48.97

Value

$47.09

PnL

-$1.88

Record

51%

465-450 (915)

OddstormCTR<$100

Imperial

Invested

$11.64

Value

$11.78

PnL

+$0.14

Record

38%

377-620 (997)

Wiretransferxyz<$100

paiN

Invested

$10.87

Value

$10.78

PnL

-$0.1

Record

53%

752-664 (1416)

Research grade

NeutralpaiN at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

paiN

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that paiN wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.