Counter-Strike: Imperial vs paiN - Map 1 Winner

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Imperial (88%) · Imperial at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 31

Imperial>99¢paiN<1¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Imperial

Consensus Traders

Imperial 88%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

$906.01

Smart Money Entry

63.1¢ → 100¢

+58% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralImperial at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Imperial

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Imperial100%

paiN0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Imperial7 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,653

Combined PnL+$905.32

paiN1 trader

Total Value$7.38

Total Shares20

Combined PnL+$0.69

Imperial — 88%paiN — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
latvian.demon	Imperialavg 51¢	$510	$999.5	+$489.5	54% 680-574 (1254)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Imperialavg 55.1¢	$622.2	$937.31	+$315.1	52% 13732-12533 (26265)
46 467j6yj	Imperialavg 98.5¢	$698.84	$709.3	+$10.46	97% 3306-116 (3422)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Imperialavg 67.5¢	$469.3	$489.02	+$19.72	53% 2376-2085 (4461)
OM omnibus-076daa	Imperialavg 46.3¢	$140.89	$190.03	+$49.14	49% 19009-19414 (38423)
poshposh	Imperialavg 51¢	$84.28	$103.24	+$18.96	59% 9948-6921 (16869)
0X 0x4f2<$100	Imperialavg 51¢	$10.82	$13.27	+$2.44	52% 9144-8538 (17682)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	paiNavg 34¢	$6.69	$7.38	+$0.69	58% 41515-30150 (71665)

latvian.demon

Imperial

Invested

$510

Value

$999.5

PnL

+$489.5

Record

54%

680-574 (1254)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Imperial

Invested

$622.2

Value

$937.31

PnL

+$315.1

Record

52%

13732-12533 (26265)

467j6yj

Imperial

Invested

$698.84

Value

$709.3

PnL

+$10.46

Record

97%

3306-116 (3422)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Imperial

Invested

$469.3

Value

$489.02

PnL

+$19.72

Record

53%

2376-2085 (4461)

omnibus-076daa

Imperial

Invested

$140.89

Value

$190.03

PnL

+$49.14

Record

49%

19009-19414 (38423)

poshposh

Imperial

Invested

$84.28

Value

$103.24

PnL

+$18.96

Record

59%

9948-6921 (16869)

0x4f2<$100

Imperial

Invested

$10.82

Value

$13.27

PnL

+$2.44

Record

52%

9144-8538 (17682)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

paiN

Invested

$6.69

Value

$7.38

PnL

+$0.69

Record

58%

41515-30150 (71665)

Research grade

NeutralImperial at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Imperial

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Imperial wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.