Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs MIBR - Map 1 Winner

1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold MIBR (50%) · MIBR at 100¢ · $23K held · ends Oct 28

Inner Circle Esports<1¢MIBR>99¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

MIBR

Consensus Traders

MIBR 50%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.4K

Combined PnL

-$257.58

Research grade

NeutralMIBR at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MIBR

1 of 2 top traders (50%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Inner Circle Esports0%

MIBR100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

MIBR1 trader

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,195

Combined PnL+$1.1

Inner Circle Esports1 trader

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,081

Combined PnL-$258.68

MIBR — 50%Inner Circle Esports — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AA aaaa298ARB<$100	MIBRavg 68.2¢	$6.4K	$8.2K	+$1.8K	59% 755-535 (1290)
└ MIBR leg	MIBRavg 68.2¢	$4.7K	$4.2K	-$530.38
└ Inner Circle Esports leg	Inner Circle Esportsavg 16.7¢	$1.7K	$4.0K	+$2.3K
PN pnhctARB<$100	MIBRavg 62.1¢	$3.8K	$4.0K	+$195.98	54% 461-398 (859)
└ MIBR leg	MIBRavg 62.1¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$62.87
└ Inner Circle Esports leg	Inner Circle Esportsavg 33.2¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$258.85
RN1ARB<$100	MIBRavg 69¢	$3.5K	$3.3K	-$192.21	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
└ MIBR leg	MIBRavg 69¢	$2.5K	$2.2K	-$305.07
└ Inner Circle Esports leg	Inner Circle Esportsavg 35.6¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$112.87
II iii252ARB<$100	MIBRavg 75.9¢	$4.5K	$3.1K	+$1.3K	57% 1103-849 (1952)
└ MIBR leg	MIBRavg 75.9¢	$2.2K	$1.7K	+$224.8
└ Inner Circle Esports leg	Inner Circle Esportsavg 6.3¢	$214.24	$1.3K	+$1.1K
LU LuckyWin	MIBRavg 99.9¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$1.1	85% 763-131 (894)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Inner Circle Esportsavg 47.9¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$258.68	49% 18625-19055 (37680)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	MIBRavg 70.8¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$12.93	52% 13570-12415 (25985)
└ MIBR leg	MIBRavg 70.8¢	$762.52	$652.04	-$110.48
└ Inner Circle Esports leg	Inner Circle Esportsavg 29.8¢	$376.99	$500.4	+$123.41
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100	MIBRavg 65.8¢	$1.5K	$236.16	+$84.22	54% 1059-903 (1962)
└ MIBR leg	MIBRavg 65.8¢	$135.92	$125.03	-$228.87
└ Inner Circle Esports leg	Inner Circle Esportsavg 29.4¢	$82.73	$111.12	+$313.09

aaaa298ARB<$100

MIBR

Invested

$6,407.58

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

59%

755-535 (1290)

Both legs:

MIBR$4,717.0968.2¢-$530.38

Inner Circle Esports$1,690.4916.7¢+$2.3K

pnhctARB<$100

MIBR

Invested

$3,846.77

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$195.98

Record

54%

461-398 (859)

Both legs:

MIBR$2,469.7862.1¢-$62.87

Inner Circle Esports$1,376.9933.2¢+$258.85

RN1ARB<$100

MIBR

Invested

$3,517.43

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$192.21

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

Both legs:

MIBR$2,484.5669¢-$305.07

Inner Circle Esports$1,032.8735.6¢+$112.87

iii252ARB<$100

MIBR

Invested

$4,523.57

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

57%

1103-849 (1952)

Both legs:

MIBR$2,179.1875.9¢+$224.8

Inner Circle Esports$214.246.3¢+$1.1K

LuckyWin

MIBR

Invested

$2,192.5

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$1.1

Record

85%

763-131 (894)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Inner Circle Esports

Invested

$1,475.76

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$258.68

Record

49%

18625-19055 (37680)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

MIBR

Invested

$1,139.51

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$12.93

Record

52%

13570-12415 (25985)

Both legs:

MIBR$762.5270.8¢-$110.48

Inner Circle Esports$376.9929.8¢+$123.41

TommyLeePeecaARB<$100

MIBR

Invested

$1,534.33

Value

$236.16

PnL

+$84.22

Record

54%

1059-903 (1962)

Both legs:

MIBR$135.9265.8¢-$228.87

Inner Circle Esports$82.7329.4¢+$313.09

Research grade

NeutralMIBR at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

MIBR

1 of 2 top traders (50%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MIBR wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.