Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs MIBR (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs

11 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold MIBR (58%) · MIBR at 92¢ · $190K held · ends Oct 29

Inner Circle Esports9¢MIBR91¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

MIBR

Consensus Traders

MIBR 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$190.4K

Combined PnL

-$863.7

Smart Money Entry

60.8¢ → 91.5¢

+51% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralMIBR at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MIBR

11 of 19 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Inner Circle Esports9%

MIBR92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

MIBR11 traders

Total Value$107.8K

Total Shares173,771

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Inner Circle Esports8 traders

Total Value$81.3K

Total Shares203,902

Combined PnL$-2.5K

MIBR — 58%Inner Circle Esports — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LL lllllllIlll	MIBRavg 59.7¢	$89.5K	$90.7K	+$1.2K	55% 290-240 (530)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Inner Circle Esportsavg 40.7¢	$33.9K	$32.7K	$-1.2K	49% 18625-19055 (37680)
FA fantasy7788CTR	Inner Circle Esportsavg 40.7¢	$29.5K	$28.7K	-$839.74	42% 74-104 (178)
JU juice-fruitCTR	Inner Circle Esportsavg 40¢	$15.3K	$15.1K	-$191.59	59% 50-35 (85)
Satanishippie	MIBRavg 61¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	-$31.15	48% 301-326 (627)
RN1	MIBRavg 78.7¢	$3.1K	$3.5K	+$458.47	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
AA aaaa298	MIBRavg 66.3¢	$2.5K	$3.0K	+$462.26	59% 755-535 (1290)
NO nobody2somebodyCTR	Inner Circle Esportsavg 42¢	$3.0K	$2.8K	-$178.57	52% 616-579 (1195)
II iii252	MIBRavg 75.6¢	$3.0K	$2.4K	-$605.59	57% 1103-849 (1952)
RA Rayaya	MIBRavg 60¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$15	60% 1163-763 (1926)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Inner Circle Esportsavg 40.8¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$50.5	51% 1291-1227 (2518)
PN pnhctARB<$100	MIBRavg 71.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$75.08	54% 461-398 (859)
└ MIBR leg	MIBRavg 71.9¢	$1.2K	$979.78	-$185.35
└ Inner Circle Esports leg	Inner Circle Esportsavg 24.5¢	$179.58	$289.85	+$110.26
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	MIBRavg 73.2¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$111.1	52% 13570-12415 (25985)
hasobidale	MIBRavg 60¢	$720	$726	+$6	67% 210-105 (315)
VI vibing123CTR	Inner Circle Esportsavg 39¢	$354.94	$359.49	+$4.55	52% 1546-1430 (2976)
latvian.demon	MIBRavg 64¢	$319.99	$302.49	-$17.5	54% 640-546 (1186)
TO TommyLeePeeca	MIBRavg 71.2¢	$829.57	$243.44	-$27	54% 1059-903 (1962)
SE sentrio	MIBRavg 82¢	$184.46	$185.58	+$1.12	50% 24862-24562 (49424)
StudyPredictionCTR<$100	Inner Circle Esportsavg 38¢	$90.1	$93.65	+$3.56	53% 4544-3961 (8505)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Inner Circle Esportsavg 20¢	$1.2	$1.35	+$0.15	47% 2067-2357 (4424)

lllllllIlll

MIBR

Invested

$89,499.99

Value

$90.7K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

55%

290-240 (530)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Inner Circle Esports

Invested

$33,901.5

Value

$32.7K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

49%

18625-19055 (37680)

fantasy7788CTR

Inner Circle Esports

Invested

$29,536.26

Value

$28.7K

PnL

-$839.74

Record

42%

74-104 (178)

juice-fruitCTR

Inner Circle Esports

Invested

$15,326.86

Value

$15.1K

PnL

-$191.59

Record

59%

50-35 (85)

Satanishippie

MIBR

Invested

$3,800

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$31.15

Record

48%

301-326 (627)

RN1

MIBR

Invested

$3,065.68

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$458.47

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

aaaa298

MIBR

Invested

$2,502.06

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$462.26

Record

59%

755-535 (1290)

nobody2somebodyCTR

Inner Circle Esports

Invested

$3,000

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$178.57

Record

52%

616-579 (1195)

iii252

MIBR

Invested

$3,030.95

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$605.59

Record

57%

1103-849 (1952)

Rayaya

MIBR

Invested

$1,800

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$15

Record

60%

1163-763 (1926)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Inner Circle Esports

Invested

$1,567.3

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$50.5

Record

51%

1291-1227 (2518)

pnhctARB<$100

MIBR

Invested

$1,344.71

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$75.08

Record

54%

461-398 (859)

Both legs:

MIBR$1,165.1371.9¢-$185.35

Inner Circle Esports$179.5824.5¢+$110.26

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

MIBR

Invested

$1,026.55

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$111.1

Record

52%

13570-12415 (25985)

hasobidale

MIBR

Invested

$720

Value

$726

PnL

+$6

Record

67%

210-105 (315)

vibing123CTR

Inner Circle Esports

Invested

$354.94

Value

$359.49

PnL

+$4.55

Record

52%

1546-1430 (2976)

latvian.demon

MIBR

Invested

$319.99

Value

$302.49

PnL

-$17.5

Record

54%

640-546 (1186)

TommyLeePeeca

MIBR

Invested

$829.57

Value

$243.44

PnL

-$27

Record

54%

1059-903 (1962)

sentrio

MIBR

Invested

$184.46

Value

$185.58

PnL

+$1.12

Record

50%

24862-24562 (49424)

StudyPredictionCTR<$100

Inner Circle Esports

Invested

$90.1

Value

$93.65

PnL

+$3.56

Record

53%

4544-3961 (8505)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Inner Circle Esports

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.35

PnL

+$0.15

Record

47%

2067-2357 (4424)

Research grade

NeutralMIBR at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

MIBR

11 of 19 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MIBR wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.