Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Inner Circle Esports, while the market favors Astralis (80%). 11 of 20 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner

11 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Inner Circle Esports (55%) · Inner Circle Esports at 21¢ · $106K held · ends Oct 29

Inner Circle Esports21¢Astralis79¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Inner Circle Esports

Consensus Traders

Inner Circle Esports 55%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$106.3K

Combined PnL

$146.84

Smart Money Entry

44.6¢ → 20.5¢

-54% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidInner Circle Esports at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Inner Circle Esports

11 of 20 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Astralis 80%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Inner Circle Esports21%

Astralis80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Inner Circle Esports11 traders

Total Value$23.6K

Total Shares54,967

Combined PnL-$909.4

Astralis9 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares13,830

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Inner Circle Esports — 55%Astralis — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Inner Circle Esportsavg 50.8¢	$33.9K	$32.9K	$-1.0K	54% 56027-48153 (104180)
└ Inner Circle Esports leg	Inner Circle Esportsavg 50.8¢	$18.1K	$19.1K	+$968.43
└ Astralis leg	Astralisavg 53.3¢	$15.8K	$13.8K	$-2.0K
PN pnhctARB<$100	Astralisavg 54.7¢	$19.0K	$19.4K	+$410.41	54% 478-406 (884)
└ Astralis leg	Astralisavg 54.7¢	$10.7K	$13.1K	+$2.3K
└ Inner Circle Esports leg	Inner Circle Esportsavg 43.5¢	$8.3K	$6.4K	$-1.9K
II iii252ARB<$100	Astralisavg 57.5¢	$17.2K	$18.5K	+$1.3K	57% 1116-856 (1972)
└ Astralis leg	Astralisavg 57.5¢	$11.5K	$13.3K	+$1.8K
└ Inner Circle Esports leg	Inner Circle Esportsavg 36.7¢	$5.7K	$5.2K	-$492.09
10 0x1067...69b7CTR	Inner Circle Esportsavg 38.7¢	$7.2K	$6.7K	-$503.47	—
AA aaaa298	Astralisavg 49.7¢	$5.7K	$6.7K	+$961.7	59% 763-540 (1303)
JohnLKellyJrCTR	Inner Circle Esportsavg 62.1¢	$5.5K	$5.2K	-$321.03	52% 1210-1104 (2314)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Inner Circle Esportsavg 44.1¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$116.29	49% 18818-19217 (38035)
UN UnknownpoluyCTR	Inner Circle Esportsavg 37.4¢	$3.5K	$3.4K	-$130.28	44% 95-121 (216)
3648393489047CTR	Inner Circle Esportsavg 60¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$55.81	61% 1114-703 (1817)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Inner Circle Esportsavg 45.3¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$60.25	52% 13648-12476 (26124)
└ Astralis leg	Astralisavg 52.9¢	$925.76	$1.2K	+$238.41
└ Inner Circle Esports leg	Inner Circle Esportsavg 45.3¢	$1.1K	$844.9	-$298.66
DE delacsynzy1	Astralisavg 54¢	$1,000	$972.95	-$27.05	52% 444-418 (862)
FK fkALCTR	Inner Circle Esportsavg 32.6¢	$723.16	$720.14	-$3.02	63% 2017-1188 (3205)
TG tghj20CTR	Inner Circle Esportsavg 35¢	$691	$671.26	-$19.74	50% 54-54 (108)
46 467j6yj	Astralisavg 78.8¢	$738.25	$649.22	+$6.97	97% 3253-113 (3366)
CR Crazyboy77CTR	Inner Circle Esportsavg 44¢	$439.99	$444.99	+$5	52% 175-164 (339)
hasobidale	Astralisavg 52.9¢	$429.6	$434.37	+$4.77	66% 211-109 (320)
poshposh	Astralisavg 48.9¢	$318.21	$428.97	+$110.76	59% 9676-6661 (16337)
Gamer-GirlCTR	Inner Circle Esportsavg 66¢	$357.78	$360.49	+$2.71	43% 1780-2349 (4129)
PI PIPIZIN	Astralisavg 58¢	$300	$292.24	-$7.76	52% 405-380 (785)
GR Grool	Astralisavg 63.9¢	$191.8	$187.5	-$4.3	54% 1597-1377 (2974)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Astralisavg 68.6¢	$175	$172.17	-$2.83	59% 30217-20924 (51141)
DumplingBMF	Astralisavg 50¢	$99.85	$113.82	+$13.98	68% 1808-843 (2651)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Inner Circle Esportsavg 50.5¢	$10.15	$10.55	+$0.4	63% 1100-656 (1756)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Inner Circle Esportsavg 63¢	$6.3	$5.85	-$0.45	50% 7748-7766 (15514)

RN1ARB<$100

Inner Circle Esports

Invested

$33,942.15

Value

$32.9K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

54%

56027-48153 (104180)

Both legs:

Inner Circle Esports$18,113.7850.8¢+$968.43

Astralis$15,828.3753.3¢$-2.0K

pnhctARB<$100

Astralis

Invested

$19,008.36

Value

$19.4K

PnL

+$410.41

Record

54%

478-406 (884)

Both legs:

Astralis$10,742.9954.7¢+$2.3K

Inner Circle Esports$8,265.3743.5¢$-1.9K

iii252ARB<$100

Astralis

Invested

$17,160.18

Value

$18.5K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

57%

1116-856 (1972)

Both legs:

Astralis$11,501.7757.5¢+$1.8K

Inner Circle Esports$5,658.4236.7¢-$492.09

0x1067...69b7CTR

Inner Circle Esports

Invested

$7,225.35

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$503.47

Record

—

aaaa298

Astralis

Invested

$5,694.33

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$961.7

Record

59%

763-540 (1303)

JohnLKellyJrCTR

Inner Circle Esports

Invested

$5,522.88

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$321.03

Record

52%

1210-1104 (2314)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Inner Circle Esports

Invested

$3,757.73

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$116.29

Record

49%

18818-19217 (38035)

UnknownpoluyCTR

Inner Circle Esports

Invested

$3,500

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$130.28

Record

44%

95-121 (216)

3648393489047CTR

Inner Circle Esports

Invested

$2,259.01

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$55.81

Record

61%

1114-703 (1817)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Inner Circle Esports

Invested

$2,069.32

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$60.25

Record

52%

13648-12476 (26124)

Both legs:

Astralis$925.7652.9¢+$238.41

Inner Circle Esports$1,143.5645.3¢-$298.66

delacsynzy1

Astralis

Invested

$1,000

Value

$972.95

PnL

-$27.05

Record

52%

444-418 (862)

fkALCTR

Inner Circle Esports

Invested

$723.16

Value

$720.14

PnL

-$3.02

Record

63%

2017-1188 (3205)

tghj20CTR

Inner Circle Esports

Invested

$691

Value

$671.26

PnL

-$19.74

Record

50%

54-54 (108)

467j6yj

Astralis

Invested

$738.25

Value

$649.22

PnL

+$6.97

Record

97%

3253-113 (3366)

Crazyboy77CTR

Inner Circle Esports

Invested

$439.99

Value

$444.99

PnL

+$5

Record

52%

175-164 (339)

hasobidale

Astralis

Invested

$429.6

Value

$434.37

PnL

+$4.77

Record

66%

211-109 (320)

poshposh

Astralis

Invested

$318.21

Value

$428.97

PnL

+$110.76

Record

59%

9676-6661 (16337)

Gamer-GirlCTR

Inner Circle Esports

Invested

$357.78

Value

$360.49

PnL

+$2.71

Record

43%

1780-2349 (4129)

PIPIZIN

Astralis

Invested

$300

Value

$292.24

PnL

-$7.76

Record

52%

405-380 (785)

Grool

Astralis

Invested

$191.8

Value

$187.5

PnL

-$4.3

Record

54%

1597-1377 (2974)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Astralis

Invested

$175

Value

$172.17

PnL

-$2.83

Record

59%

30217-20924 (51141)

DumplingBMF

Astralis

Invested

$99.85

Value

$113.82

PnL

+$13.98

Record

68%

1808-843 (2651)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Inner Circle Esports

Invested

$10.15

Value

$10.55

PnL

+$0.4

Record

63%

1100-656 (1756)

RLWGCTR<$100

Inner Circle Esports

Invested

$6.3

Value

$5.85

PnL

-$0.45

Record

50%

7748-7766 (15514)

Research grade

AvoidInner Circle Esports at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Inner Circle Esports

11 of 20 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Astralis 80%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Inner Circle Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.3%

20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$347.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

447.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.