Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Astralis (67%) · Astralis at 52¢ · $94K held · ends Oct 29

Inner Circle Esports49¢Astralis51¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Astralis

Consensus Traders

Astralis 67%

Total Value

$93.5K

Combined PnL

-$816.28

Smart Money Entry

52.2¢ → 51.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralAstralis at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Astralis

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Inner Circle Esports49%

Astralis52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Astralis6 traders

Total Value$73.5K

Total Shares142,732

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Inner Circle Esports3 traders

Total Value$20.0K

Total Shares41,255

Combined PnL+$207.69

Astralis — 67%Inner Circle Esports — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Astralis. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAstralis 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Astralis 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
yabanci	Astralisavg 52.2¢	$69.0K	$68.1K	-$913.69	57% 48-36 (84)
VP VPenguinCTR	Inner Circle Esportsavg 48¢	$16.8K	$17.0K	+$173.41	44% 796-1029 (1825)
OL olegioCTR	Inner Circle Esportsavg 48¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$29.77	44% 409-524 (933)
Reformedx	Astralisavg 53¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$75	52% 797-740 (1537)
hammyandcheese	Astralisavg 52.6¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$25	57% 360-276 (636)
RA Rayaya	Astralisavg 51¢	$992.09	$1.0K	+$9.73	60% 1164-765 (1929)
hasobidale	Astralisavg 53¢	$704.9	$684.95	-$19.95	67% 211-106 (317)
AV avarecCTR	Inner Circle Esportsavg 47¢	$141	$145.5	+$4.5	54% 100-86 (186)
HRTrading<$100	Astralisavg 53.5¢	$5.89	$5.83	-$0.06	53% 3243-2909 (6152)

yabanci

Astralis

Invested

$69,020.2

Value

$68.1K

PnL

-$913.69

Record

57%

48-36 (84)

VPenguinCTR

Inner Circle Esports

Invested

$16,801.81

Value

$17.0K

PnL

+$173.41

Record

44%

796-1029 (1825)

olegioCTR

Inner Circle Esports

Invested

$2,858.31

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$29.77

Record

44%

409-524 (933)

Reformedx

Astralis

Invested

$2,650

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$75

Record

52%

797-740 (1537)

hammyandcheese

Astralis

Invested

$1,158

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$25

Record

57%

360-276 (636)

Rayaya

Astralis

Invested

$992.09

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$9.73

Record

60%

1164-765 (1929)

hasobidale

Astralis

Invested

$704.9

Value

$684.95

PnL

-$19.95

Record

67%

211-106 (317)

avarecCTR

Inner Circle Esports

Invested

$141

Value

$145.5

PnL

+$4.5

Record

54%

100-86 (186)

HRTrading<$100

Astralis

Invested

$5.89

Value

$5.83

PnL

-$0.06

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

Research grade

NeutralAstralis at 52%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Astralis

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Astralis. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAstralis 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Astralis 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Astralis wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.