Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold HOTU (75%) · HOTU at 100¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
HOTU
8
HOTU 75%
$5.5K
$345.76
89.5¢ → 100¢
+12% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralHOTU at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on HOTU. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LO looppau | HOTUavg 99.9¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$1.25 | 99% 10683-59 (10742) |
TE testBruno2 | HOTUavg 76.6¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | +$291.98 | 58% 836-614 (1450) |
VP Vps1 | HOTUavg 99.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$0.55 | 96% 280-12 (292) |
SP spartachio | HOTUavg 41¢ | $423.99 | $315.18 | +$191.84 | 48% 694-746 (1440) |
CA calculate10 | HOTUavg 71¢ | $189.04 | $266.11 | +$77.08 | 53% 1226-1078 (2304) |
0X 0x4f2<$100 | HOTUavg 72¢ | $50 | $69.41 | +$19.41 | 52% 9118-8519 (17637) |
SE seeeeeebCTR | GamerLegionavg 24.2¢ | $126.62 | $0.26 | -$126.36 | 51% 714-686 (1400) |
PA pauleta23CTR | GamerLegionavg 26.3¢ | $110.19 | $0.21 | -$109.98 | 67% 23216-11620 (34836) |
Invested
$2,497.5
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$1.25
Record
99%
10683-59 (10742)
Invested
$1,350
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$291.98
Record
58%
836-614 (1450)
Invested
$1,098.9
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$0.55
Record
96%
280-12 (292)
Invested
$423.99
Value
$315.18
PnL
+$191.84
Record
48%
694-746 (1440)
Invested
$189.04
Value
$266.11
PnL
+$77.08
Record
53%
1226-1078 (2304)
Invested
$50
Value
$69.41
PnL
+$19.41
Record
52%
9118-8519 (17637)
Invested
$126.62
Value
$0.26
PnL
-$126.36
Record
51%
714-686 (1400)
Invested
$110.19
Value
$0.21
PnL
-$109.98
Record
67%
23216-11620 (34836)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.