Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold HOTU (83%) · HOTU at 73¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
HOTU
6
HOTU 83%
$5.4K
$256.46
66.2¢ → 72.5¢
+9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralHOTU at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on HOTU. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | HOTUavg 64.7¢ | $3.3K | $3.4K | +$121.85 | 53% 2332-2063 (4395) |
CA calculate10 | HOTUavg 73.6¢ | $1.5K | $788.06 | +$43.87 | 53% 1222-1078 (2300) |
TE testBruno2 | HOTUavg 69.8¢ | $1.4K | $468.22 | -$12.29 | 58% 834-611 (1445) |
 MaktManCTR | GamerLegionavg 21¢ | $339.15 | $339.15 | +$0 | 51% 40-38 (78) |
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554 | HOTUavg 60¢ | $200 | $260 | +$60 | 53% 3134-2769 (5903) |
PA panpidaras1 | HOTUavg 56¢ | $187.07 | $147.79 | +$43.03 | 52% 188-171 (359) |
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$3,259.39
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$121.85
Record
53%
2332-2063 (4395)
Invested
$1,528.51
Value
$788.06
PnL
+$43.87
Record
53%
1222-1078 (2300)
Invested
$1,372.57
Value
$468.22
PnL
-$12.29
Record
58%
834-611 (1445)
MaktManCTRInvested
$339.15
Value
$339.15
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
40-38 (78)
Invested
$200
Value
$260
PnL
+$60
Record
53%
3134-2769 (5903)
Invested
$187.07
Value
$147.79
PnL
+$43.03
Record
52%
188-171 (359)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.