Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold HOTU, while the market favors GamerLegion (52%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Tesla Cup Group B
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold HOTU (80%) · HOTU at 49¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
HOTU
5
HOTU 80%
$5.3K
-$443.48
53.9¢ → 48.5¢
-10% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralHOTU at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors GamerLegion 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 dicekingCTR | HOTUavg 55¢ | $2.8K | $2.5K | -$225 | 57% 313-234 (547) |
RA RayayaCTR | HOTUavg 57¢ | $1.7K | $1.5K | -$255 | 60% 1160-759 (1919) |
VI vibing123CTR | HOTUavg 47¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$21.52 | 52% 1538-1422 (2960) |
JO johnsonboyy | GamerLegionavg 45¢ | $192.87 | $210.01 | +$15 | 43% 37-49 (86) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | HOTUavg 51¢ | $3.06 | $3.06 | +$0 | 53% 2956-2611 (5567) |
dicekingCTRInvested
$2,750
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$225
Record
57%
313-234 (547)
Invested
$1,709.99
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$255
Record
60%
1160-759 (1919)
Invested
$1,011.41
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$21.52
Record
52%
1538-1422 (2960)
Invested
$192.87
Value
$210.01
PnL
+$15
Record
43%
37-49 (86)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.06
Value
$3.06
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
2956-2611 (5567)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.