Counter-Strike: HOTU vs 1WIN (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games Playoffs
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold 1WIN (40%) · 1WIN at 51¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
1WIN
5
1WIN 40%
$4.8K
-$18.14
52¢ → 51¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
Neutral1WIN at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237 | 1WINavg 52¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$24.04 | 51% 350-340 (690) |
 SatanishippieCTR | HOTUavg 48¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | -$55.96 | 48% 322-346 (668) |
 DumplingBMFCTR | HOTUavg 46¢ | $425.35 | $425.35 | +$13.87 | 68% 1823-847 (2670) |
 Basquetipster | 1WINavg 53¢ | $120 | $117.74 | +$0 | 68% 1670-770 (2440) |
LL lllllllIlllCTR<$100 | HOTUavg 47¢ | $4.23 | $4.14 | -$0.09 | 54% 305-262 (567) |
Invested
$2,499.98
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$24.04
Record
51%
350-340 (690)
SatanishippieCTRInvested
$1,800
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$55.96
Record
48%
322-346 (668)
DumplingBMFCTRInvested
$425.35
Value
$425.35
PnL
+$13.87
Record
68%
1823-847 (2670)
BasquetipsterInvested
$120
Value
$117.74
PnL
+$0
Record
68%
1670-770 (2440)
Invested
$4.23
Value
$4.14
PnL
-$0.09
Record
54%
305-262 (567)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.