Counter-Strike: Heroic vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Heroic (60%) · Heroic at 62¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Heroic
5
Heroic 60%
1 arb excluded
$13.3K
$87.11
60¢ → 61.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralHeroic at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR | B8avg 40¢ | $5.4K | $6.0K | +$544.36 | 54% 320-276 (596) |
HU humbleboy | Heroicavg 60¢ | $4.8K | $4.5K | -$320 | 55% 513-428 (941) |
RA Rayaya | Heroicavg 60¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | -$120 | 60% 1176-775 (1951) |
 hasobidale | Heroicavg 60¢ | $804 | $750.4 | -$53.6 | 66% 224-116 (340) |
 relativesignificanceCTR | B8avg 39¢ | $283.53 | $319.88 | +$36.35 | 56% 109-84 (193) |
GH ghorrockARB<$100 | Heroicavg 60¢ | $92.66 | $94.09 | +$1.43 | 57% 13805-10579 (24384) |
| └ Heroic leg | Heroicavg 60¢ | $69.29 | $71.02 | +$1.73 | |
| └ B8 leg | B8avg 39¢ | $23.37 | $23.07 | -$0.3 |
Invested
$5,443.64
Value
$6.0K
PnL
+$544.36
Record
54%
320-276 (596)
Invested
$4,800
Value
$4.5K
PnL
-$320
Record
55%
513-428 (941)
Invested
$1,800
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$120
Record
60%
1176-775 (1951)
hasobidaleInvested
$804
Value
$750.4
PnL
-$53.6
Record
66%
224-116 (340)
relativesignificanceCTRInvested
$283.53
Value
$319.88
PnL
+$36.35
Record
56%
109-84 (193)
Invested
$92.66
Value
$94.09
PnL
+$1.43
Record
57%
13805-10579 (24384)
Both legs:
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.