Counter-Strike: Hermine Esports Club vs TTG Esports - Map 2 Winner
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold TTG Esports (50%) · TTG Esports at 100¢ · $970 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
TTG Esports
4
TTG Esports 50%
2 arb excluded
$969.74
-$76.85
95.1¢ → 100¢
+5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralTTG Esports at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VP Vps1 | TTG Esportsavg 99.9¢ | $460.07 | $460.3 | +$0.23 | 96% 266-12 (278) |
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100 | TTG Esportsavg 63.5¢ | $343.85 | $352.19 | +$8.35 | 53% 2208-1974 (4182) |
| └ Hermine Esports Club leg | Hermine Esports Clubavg 37.3¢ | $144.26 | $201.38 | +$57.12 | |
| └ TTG Esports leg | TTG Esportsavg 63.5¢ | $199.59 | $150.82 | -$48.77 | |
0X 0x4f2ARB<$100 | Hermine Esports Clubavg 35¢ | $55.97 | $74.62 | +$18.65 | 52% 9103-8506 (17609) |
| └ Hermine Esports Club leg | Hermine Esports Clubavg 35¢ | $35.98 | $53.4 | +$17.42 | |
| └ TTG Esports leg | TTG Esportsavg 45.2¢ | $19.99 | $21.22 | +$1.22 | |
TE testBruno2 | TTG Esportsavg 76.4¢ | $272.45 | $57.12 | -$78.44 | 58% 816-601 (1417) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Hermine Esports Clubavg 49.7¢ | $44.41 | $20.32 | -$2.84 | 60% 3253-2181 (5434) |
PA Parkan312CTR<$100 | Hermine Esports Clubavg 10¢ | $1 | $5.2 | +$4.2 | 74% 301-106 (407) |
Invested
$460.07
Value
$460.3
PnL
+$0.23
Record
96%
266-12 (278)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100Invested
$343.85
Value
$352.19
PnL
+$8.35
Record
53%
2208-1974 (4182)
Both legs:
Invested
$55.97
Value
$74.62
PnL
+$18.65
Record
52%
9103-8506 (17609)
Both legs:
Invested
$272.45
Value
$57.12
PnL
-$78.44
Record
58%
816-601 (1417)
Invested
$44.41
Value
$20.32
PnL
-$2.84
Record
60%
3253-2181 (5434)
Invested
$1
Value
$5.2
PnL
+$4.2
Record
74%
301-106 (407)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.