Counter-Strike: Hermine Esports Club vs TTG Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #10 Playoffs

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold TTG Esports (20%) · TTG Esports at 57¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 29

Hermine Esports Club43¢TTG Esports57¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

TTG Esports

Consensus Traders

TTG Esports 20%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$30.34

Research grade

NeutralTTG Esports at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

TTG Esports

1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hermine Esports Club43%

TTG Esports57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

TTG Esports1 trader

Total Value$771.07

Total Shares1,469

Combined PnL+$36.72

Hermine Esports Club4 traders

Total Value$193.29

Total Shares381

Combined PnL-$6.37

TTG Esports — 20%Hermine Esports Club — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
diceking	TTG Esportsavg 50¢	$734.36	$771.07	+$36.72	57% 316-235 (551)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Hermine Esports Clubavg 55.3¢	$232.61	$227.9	-$4.71	53% 2207-1972 (4179)
└ Hermine Esports Club leg	Hermine Esports Clubavg 55.3¢	$144.88	$126.97	-$17.91
└ TTG Esports leg	TTG Esportsavg 44.8¢	$87.73	$100.93	+$13.2
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Hermine Esports Clubavg 50¢	$125	$118.75	-$6.25	59% 30106-20832 (50938)
poshposhCTR<$100	Hermine Esports Clubavg 55.3¢	$57.22	$61.55	+$4.33	60% 9402-6388 (15790)
0X 0x4f2CTR<$100	Hermine Esports Clubavg 60.7¢	$13.69	$10.61	-$3.08	52% 9103-8504 (17607)
1am1bCTR<$100	Hermine Esports Clubavg 75¢	$3.75	$2.38	-$1.38	56% 180-143 (323)

diceking

TTG Esports

Invested

$734.36

Value

$771.07

PnL

+$36.72

Record

57%

316-235 (551)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Hermine Esports Club

Invested

$232.61

Value

$227.9

PnL

-$4.71

Record

53%

2207-1972 (4179)

Both legs:

Hermine Esports Club$144.8855.3¢-$17.91

TTG Esports$87.7344.8¢+$13.2

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Hermine Esports Club

Invested

$125

Value

$118.75

PnL

-$6.25

Record

59%

30106-20832 (50938)

poshposhCTR<$100

Hermine Esports Club

Invested

$57.22

Value

$61.55

PnL

+$4.33

Record

60%

9402-6388 (15790)

0x4f2CTR<$100

Hermine Esports Club

Invested

$13.69

Value

$10.61

PnL

-$3.08

Record

52%

9103-8504 (17607)

1am1bCTR<$100

Hermine Esports Club

Invested

$3.75

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$1.38

Record

56%

180-143 (323)

Research grade

NeutralTTG Esports at 57%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

TTG Esports

1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that TTG Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.