Map Handicap: GLS (-1.5) vs RED Canids Academy (+1.5)

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Galorys (29%) · Galorys at 67¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 13

Galorys67¢RED Canids Academy33¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Galorys

Consensus Traders

Galorys 29%

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

60¢ → 67¢

+12% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralGalorys at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Galorys

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Galorys67%

RED Canids Academy33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Galorys2 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,875

Combined PnL+$565.94

RED Canids Academy5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,808

Combined PnL+$602.39

Galorys — 29%RED Canids Academy — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Galorys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRED Canids Academy 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedRED Canids Academy 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000RED Canids Academy 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	Galorysavg 59.9¢	$2.2K	$2.9K	+$621.46	56% 156-125 (281)
VeryLucky888CTR	RED Canids Academyavg 39.3¢	$870.64	$723.58	+$373.49	53% 1030-921 (1951)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	RED Canids Academyavg 41.1¢	$192.78	$361.52	+$168.74	44% 391-495 (886)
BI biying99999CTR	RED Canids Academyavg 39.4¢	$170.77	$340.07	+$169.3	33% 88-181 (269)
one8tyfiveCTR	RED Canids Academyavg 40¢	$387.2	$271.04	-$116.16	— 10-5 (15)
KA Kaczka<$100	Galorysavg 62¢	$85	$29.48	-$55.52	1% 2-176 (178)
BI biying88888CTR<$100	RED Canids Academyavg 34.6¢	$5.54	$12.56	+$7.02	43% 190-253 (443)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

Galorys

Invested

$2,237.87

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$621.46

Record

56%

156-125 (281)

VeryLucky888CTR

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$870.64

Value

$723.58

PnL

+$373.49

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

omnibus-076daaCTR

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$192.78

Value

$361.52

PnL

+$168.74

Record

44%

391-495 (886)

biying99999CTR

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$170.77

Value

$340.07

PnL

+$169.3

Record

33%

88-181 (269)

one8tyfiveCTR

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$387.2

Value

$271.04

PnL

-$116.16

Record

—

10-5 (15)

Kaczka<$100

Galorys

Invested

$85

Value

$29.48

PnL

-$55.52

Record

2-176 (178)

biying88888CTR<$100

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$5.54

Value

$12.56

PnL

+$7.02

Record

43%

190-253 (443)

Research grade

NeutralGalorys at 67%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Galorys

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Galorys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRED Canids Academy 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedRED Canids Academy 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000RED Canids Academy 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Galorys wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.1%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.