Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Galorys, while the market favors Procyon Gaming (100%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Galorys vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - FiReSPORTS Last Chance Group B

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Galorys (33%) · Galorys at 0.1¢ · $17K held · ends Oct 30

Galorys<1¢Procyon Gaming>99¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Galorys

Consensus Traders

Galorys 33%

Total Value

$16.9K

Combined PnL

$1.9K

Smart Money Entry

66.9¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidGalorys at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Galorys

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Procyon Gaming 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Galorys0%

Procyon Gaming100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Galorys3 traders

Total Value$14.7K

Total Shares17,672

Combined PnL+$2.8K

Procyon Gaming6 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,220

Combined PnL-$970.55

Galorys — 33%Procyon Gaming — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Galorys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGalorys 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpGalorys 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrProcyon Gaming 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Procyon Gaming 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JohnLKellyJrCTR	Galorysavg 68¢	$11.0K	$13.5K	+$2.4K	52% 1218-1115 (2333)
poshposh	Procyon Gamingavg 44.2¢	$912.45	$1.6K	+$685.67	59% 9732-6717 (16449)
latvian.demonCTR	Galorysavg 60¢	$599.99	$829.99	+$230	54% 664-568 (1232)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Galorysavg 43.6¢	$195.09	$371.75	+$176.66	49% 18867-19279 (38146)
ARTEM-DZYUBA	Procyon Gamingavg 99¢	$1.9K	$322.76	$-1.6K	86% 4929-819 (5748)
TO TommyLeePeeca	Procyon Gamingavg 43.6¢	$13.6K	$310.39	-$11.9	54% 1080-931 (2011)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Procyon Gamingavg 41.9¢	$80.87	$32.79	-$48.08	59% 30246-20951 (51197)
AR arbmonitor<$100	Procyon Gamingavg 26¢	$43.13	$13.27	-$29.86	44% 566-727 (1293)
CC ccllar<$100	Procyon Gamingavg 26.1¢	$13.77	$4.23	-$9.54	46% 409-477 (886)

JohnLKellyJrCTR

Galorys

Invested

$11,032.25

Value

$13.5K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

52%

1218-1115 (2333)

poshposh

Procyon Gaming

Invested

$912.45

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$685.67

Record

59%

9732-6717 (16449)

latvian.demonCTR

Galorys

Invested

$599.99

Value

$829.99

PnL

+$230

Record

54%

664-568 (1232)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Galorys

Invested

$195.09

Value

$371.75

PnL

+$176.66

Record

49%

18867-19279 (38146)

ARTEM-DZYUBA

Procyon Gaming

Invested

$1,879.61

Value

$322.76

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

86%

4929-819 (5748)

TommyLeePeeca

Procyon Gaming

Invested

$13,554.85

Value

$310.39

PnL

-$11.9

Record

54%

1080-931 (2011)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Procyon Gaming

Invested

$80.87

Value

$32.79

PnL

-$48.08

Record

59%

30246-20951 (51197)

arbmonitor<$100

Procyon Gaming

Invested

$43.13

Value

$13.27

PnL

-$29.86

Record

44%

566-727 (1293)

ccllar<$100

Procyon Gaming

Invested

$13.77

Value

$4.23

PnL

-$9.54

Record

46%

409-477 (886)

Research grade

AvoidGalorys at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Galorys

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Procyon Gaming 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Galorys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGalorys 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpGalorys 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrProcyon Gaming 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Procyon Gaming 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Galorys wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.