Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Low Cortisol, while the market favors Galorys (87%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Galorys vs Low Cortisol - Map 2 Winner

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Low Cortisol (50%) · Low Cortisol at 13¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Galorys87¢Low Cortisol13¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Low Cortisol

Consensus Traders

Low Cortisol 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$374.93

Smart Money Entry

39.7¢ → 13¢

-67% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidLow Cortisol at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Low Cortisol

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Galorys 87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Galorys87%

Low Cortisol13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Galorys4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,576

Combined PnL+$157.97

Low Cortisol4 traders

Total Value$517.99

Total Shares2,659

Combined PnL-$532.9

Galorys — 50%Low Cortisol — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KA Kaczka	Galorysavg 54.9¢	$544.8	$764.21	+$219.41	7% 15-195 (210)
lma0o0o0oCTR	Low Cortisolavg 41.9¢	$781.38	$307.72	-$473.66	55% 46-37 (83)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Low Cortisolavg 50¢	$262.5	$265.13	+$2.63	51% 917-874 (1791)
└ Galorys leg	Galorysavg 50¢	$131.25	$173.25	+$42
└ Low Cortisol leg	Low Cortisolavg 50¢	$131.25	$91.88	-$39.38
31 319113331313111	Galorysavg 82.1¢	$1.6K	$259.71	-$141.34	56% 189-149 (338)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Galorysavg 66.4¢	$453.64	$192.74	+$59.36	61% 177-113 (290)
alpheclabs2CTR	Low Cortisolavg 32.4¢	$116.9	$126.22	+$9.32	46% 316-377 (693)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Low Cortisolavg 36.6¢	$135.4	$75.85	-$59.55	38% 1175-1954 (3129)
CR crabfavor<$100	Galorysavg 65¢	$54.48	$75.01	+$20.53	56% 103-80 (183)
Future-Tarot-TraderCTR<$100	Low Cortisolavg 32.7¢	$30.05	$8.19	-$9.01	55% 152-126 (278)

Kaczka

Galorys

Invested

$544.8

Value

$764.21

PnL

+$219.41

Record

15-195 (210)

lma0o0o0oCTR

Low Cortisol

Invested

$781.38

Value

$307.72

PnL

-$473.66

Record

55%

46-37 (83)

NotJumpARB<$100

Low Cortisol

Invested

$262.5

Value

$265.13

PnL

+$2.63

Record

51%

917-874 (1791)

Both legs:

Galorys$131.2550¢+$42

Low Cortisol$131.2550¢-$39.38

319113331313111

Galorys

Invested

$1,616.89

Value

$259.71

PnL

-$141.34

Record

56%

189-149 (338)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Galorys

Invested

$453.64

Value

$192.74

PnL

+$59.36

Record

61%

177-113 (290)

alpheclabs2CTR

Low Cortisol

Invested

$116.9

Value

$126.22

PnL

+$9.32

Record

46%

316-377 (693)

topdogbigboiCTR

Low Cortisol

Invested

$135.4

Value

$75.85

PnL

-$59.55

Record

38%

1175-1954 (3129)

crabfavor<$100

Galorys

Invested

$54.48

Value

$75.01

PnL

+$20.53

Record

56%

103-80 (183)

Future-Tarot-TraderCTR<$100

Low Cortisol

Invested

$30.05

Value

$8.19

PnL

-$9.01

Record

55%

152-126 (278)

Research grade

AvoidLow Cortisol at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Low Cortisol

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Galorys 87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Low Cortisol wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance14.6%

13.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$584.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

684.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.