Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Axorfy Gaming, while the market favors Galorys (90%). 10 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Galorys vs Axorfy Gaming (BO3) - CCT South America Playoffs

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Axorfy Gaming (83%) · Axorfy Gaming at 11¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Galorys90¢Axorfy Gaming10¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Axorfy Gaming

Consensus Traders

Axorfy Gaming 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$20.14

Smart Money Entry

34.9¢ → 10.5¢

-70% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidAxorfy Gaming at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Axorfy Gaming

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Galorys 90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Galorys90%

Axorfy Gaming11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Axorfy Gaming10 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares5,277

Combined PnL-$47.15

Galorys2 traders

Total Value$433.34

Total Shares634

Combined PnL+$27.01

Axorfy Gaming — 83%Galorys — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Axorfy Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAxorfy Gaming 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Axorfy Gaming 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	Axorfy Gamingavg 38.9¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$23.81	55% 177-144 (321)
JU JuiceFarmCTR	Axorfy Gamingavg 36.9¢	$553.76	$569.62	+$15.86	54% 59-50 (109)
GA Gaditima	Galorysavg 56.9¢	$364.86	$395.79	+$30.94	49% 386-404 (790)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Galorysavg 83.8¢	$111.64	$93.45	-$18.19	61% 196-126 (322)
└ Galorys leg	Galorysavg 83.8¢	$64.39	$66.45	+$2.06
└ Axorfy Gaming leg	Axorfy Gamingavg 23.6¢	$47.25	$27	-$20.25
31 319113331313111CTR<$100	Axorfy Gamingavg 18.4¢	$88.3	$67.2	-$21.1	55% 203-164 (367)
poshposhCTR<$100	Axorfy Gamingavg 33.5¢	$55.22	$38.71	-$16.52	49% 1311-1390 (2701)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Axorfy Gamingavg 36¢	$36	$38.5	+$2.5	53% 7473-6603 (14076)
relativesignificance<$100	Galorysavg 60.8¢	$41.47	$37.54	-$3.93	55% 171-138 (309)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Axorfy Gamingavg 19¢	$20.9	$25.85	+$4.95	66% 779-409 (1188)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Axorfy Gamingavg 40.9¢	$95.99	$25.6	-$3.97	50% 2177-2197 (4374)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Axorfy Gamingavg 15.6¢	$27.6	$20.35	-$7.25	39% 1558-2440 (3998)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Axorfy Gamingavg 19.5¢	$5.85	$7.05	+$1.2	46% 472-559 (1031)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Axorfy Gamingavg 19¢	$4.18	$5.17	+$0.99	46% 972-1163 (2135)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

Axorfy Gaming

Invested

$1,027.51

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$23.81

Record

55%

177-144 (321)

JuiceFarmCTR

Axorfy Gaming

Invested

$553.76

Value

$569.62

PnL

+$15.86

Record

54%

59-50 (109)

Gaditima

Galorys

Invested

$364.86

Value

$395.79

PnL

+$30.94

Record

49%

386-404 (790)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Galorys

Invested

$111.64

Value

$93.45

PnL

-$18.19

Record

61%

196-126 (322)

Both legs:

Galorys$64.3983.8¢+$2.06

Axorfy Gaming$47.2523.6¢-$20.25

319113331313111CTR<$100

Axorfy Gaming

Invested

$88.3

Value

$67.2

PnL

-$21.1

Record

55%

203-164 (367)

poshposhCTR<$100

Axorfy Gaming

Invested

$55.22

Value

$38.71

PnL

-$16.52

Record

49%

1311-1390 (2701)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Axorfy Gaming

Invested

$36

Value

$38.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

53%

7473-6603 (14076)

relativesignificance<$100

Galorys

Invested

$41.47

Value

$37.54

PnL

-$3.93

Record

55%

171-138 (309)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Axorfy Gaming

Invested

$20.9

Value

$25.85

PnL

+$4.95

Record

66%

779-409 (1188)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Axorfy Gaming

Invested

$95.99

Value

$25.6

PnL

-$3.97

Record

50%

2177-2197 (4374)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Axorfy Gaming

Invested

$27.6

Value

$20.35

PnL

-$7.25

Record

39%

1558-2440 (3998)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Axorfy Gaming

Invested

$5.85

Value

$7.05

PnL

+$1.2

Record

46%

472-559 (1031)

lryyyCTR<$100

Axorfy Gaming

Invested

$4.18

Value

$5.17

PnL

+$0.99

Record

46%

972-1163 (2135)

Research grade

AvoidAxorfy Gaming at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Axorfy Gaming

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Galorys 90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Axorfy Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAxorfy Gaming 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Axorfy Gaming 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Axorfy Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.0%

10.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$732.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

832.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.