Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Envy (BO3) - Tesla Cup Group B
6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold GamerLegion (60%) · GamerLegion at 95¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
GamerLegion
10
GamerLegion 60%
$3.4K
$10.27
67.2¢ → 94.8¢
+41% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralGamerLegion at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JO JohnnyWinsCTR | Envyavg 41.9¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$55.27 | 42% 118-160 (278) |
 latvian.demon | GamerLegionavg 64.6¢ | $559.57 | $558.57 | -$1 | 54% 640-546 (1186) |
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | GamerLegionavg 80.1¢ | $361.36 | $382.29 | +$20.93 | 53% 2207-1972 (4179) |
VI vibing123 | GamerLegionavg 57¢ | $346.64 | $364.89 | +$18.24 | 52% 1546-1430 (2976) |
 ColdW | GamerLegionavg 80¢ | $257.2 | $266.85 | +$9.65 | 61% 2002-1293 (3295) |
 bernardi22 | GamerLegionavg 58.2¢ | $195.34 | $201.53 | +$6.19 | 56% 1232-955 (2187) |
 hasobidaleCTR | Envyavg 17¢ | $152.32 | $147.84 | -$4.48 | 67% 210-105 (315) |
 poshposh | GamerLegionavg 83¢ | $124.5 | $123.75 | -$0.75 | 60% 9402-6388 (15790) |
 DumplingBMFCTR | Envyavg 33¢ | $97.85 | $118.61 | +$20.76 | 68% 1805-841 (2646) |
AS astapzippoCTR<$100 | Envyavg 21.5¢ | $86 | $82 | -$4 | 56% 2127-1668 (3795) |
Invested
$1,208.62
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$55.27
Record
42%
118-160 (278)
latvian.demonInvested
$559.57
Value
$558.57
PnL
-$1
Record
54%
640-546 (1186)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$361.36
Value
$382.29
PnL
+$20.93
Record
53%
2207-1972 (4179)
Invested
$346.64
Value
$364.89
PnL
+$18.24
Record
52%
1546-1430 (2976)
ColdWInvested
$257.2
Value
$266.85
PnL
+$9.65
Record
61%
2002-1293 (3295)
bernardi22Invested
$195.34
Value
$201.53
PnL
+$6.19
Record
56%
1232-955 (2187)
hasobidaleCTRInvested
$152.32
Value
$147.84
PnL
-$4.48
Record
67%
210-105 (315)
poshposhInvested
$124.5
Value
$123.75
PnL
-$0.75
Record
60%
9402-6388 (15790)
DumplingBMFCTRInvested
$97.85
Value
$118.61
PnL
+$20.76
Record
68%
1805-841 (2646)
Invested
$86
Value
$82
PnL
-$4
Record
56%
2127-1668 (3795)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
JohnnyWins
CTREnvy — $1.2K
latvian.demon
GamerLegion — $558.57
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f
GamerLegion — $382.29
vibing123
GamerLegion — $364.89
ColdW
GamerLegion — $266.85
bernardi22
GamerLegion — $201.53
hasobidale
CTREnvy — $147.84
poshposh
GamerLegion — $123.75
DumplingBMF
CTREnvy — $118.61
astapzippo
CTREnvy — $82