Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs UNiTY esports - Map 2 Winner
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold UNiTY esports (50%) · UNiTY esports at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
UNiTY esports
6
UNiTY esports 50%
$1.9K
-$13.97
77.7¢ → 100¢
+29% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUNiTY esports at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on UNiTY esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | UNiTY esportsavg 62.3¢ | $955.72 | $1.1K | +$69.12 | 53% 2368-2080 (4448) |
VP Vps1 | UNiTY esportsavg 99.9¢ | $650.06 | $650.38 | +$0.33 | 96% 292-13 (305) |
TE testBruno2 | UNiTY esportsavg 93.6¢ | $716.22 | $81.06 | +$5.15 | 57% 849-628 (1477) |
0X 0x4f2CTR | Gatorianavg 44¢ | $135.91 | $71.05 | -$64.86 | 52% 9138-8533 (17671) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Gatorianavg 14.9¢ | $49.45 | $29.07 | -$20.38 | 38% 3185-5189 (8374) |
SE seeeeeebCTR<$100 | Gatorianavg 40¢ | $3.6 | $0.27 | -$3.33 | 51% 726-694 (1420) |
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$955.72
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$69.12
Record
53%
2368-2080 (4448)
Invested
$650.06
Value
$650.38
PnL
+$0.33
Record
96%
292-13 (305)
Invested
$716.22
Value
$81.06
PnL
+$5.15
Record
57%
849-628 (1477)
Invested
$135.91
Value
$71.05
PnL
-$64.86
Record
52%
9138-8533 (17671)
Invested
$49.45
Value
$29.07
PnL
-$20.38
Record
38%
3185-5189 (8374)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$0.27
PnL
-$3.33
Record
51%
726-694 (1420)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.