Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs UNiTY esports - Map 1 Winner
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold UNiTY esports (83%) · UNiTY esports at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
UNiTY esports
6
UNiTY esports 83%
$3.2K
$704.58
51.3¢ → 100¢
+95% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUNiTY esports at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on UNiTY esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | UNiTY esportsavg 56¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$23.52 | 53% 2366-2080 (4446) |
 JohnLKellyJr | UNiTY esportsavg 49.9¢ | $448.71 | $899.19 | +$450.48 | 52% 1221-1119 (2340) |
0X 0x4f2CTR | Gatorianavg 52.5¢ | $379.65 | $435.41 | +$12.44 | 52% 9138-8532 (17670) |
TO topdogbigboi | UNiTY esportsavg 31¢ | $165.51 | $349.43 | +$183.92 | 38% 3184-5183 (8367) |
 poshposh | UNiTY esportsavg 45.4¢ | $131.6 | $209.49 | +$77.89 | 59% 9909-6885 (16794) |
TE testBruno2 | UNiTY esportsavg 80.4¢ | $150.64 | $154.02 | +$3.38 | 57% 848-628 (1476) |
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$1,133.29
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$23.52
Record
53%
2366-2080 (4446)
JohnLKellyJrInvested
$448.71
Value
$899.19
PnL
+$450.48
Record
52%
1221-1119 (2340)
Invested
$379.65
Value
$435.41
PnL
+$12.44
Record
52%
9138-8532 (17670)
Invested
$165.51
Value
$349.43
PnL
+$183.92
Record
38%
3184-5183 (8367)
poshposhInvested
$131.6
Value
$209.49
PnL
+$77.89
Record
59%
9909-6885 (16794)
Invested
$150.64
Value
$154.02
PnL
+$3.38
Record
57%
848-628 (1476)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.