Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold UNiTY esports (80%) · UNiTY esports at 100¢ · $970 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
UNiTY esports
5
UNiTY esports 80%
$970.32
-$16.53
80.1¢ → 100¢
+25% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUNiTY esports at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on UNiTY esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | UNiTY esportsavg 81.7¢ | $451.65 | $468.09 | +$16.43 | 53% 2366-2080 (4446) |
38 38791873984189 | UNiTY esportsavg 77.9¢ | $483.98 | $355.93 | -$28.35 | 46% 7925-9338 (17263) |
 poshposh<$100 | UNiTY esportsavg 84.6¢ | $75.72 | $86.07 | +$10.34 | 59% 9909-6885 (16794) |
0X 0x4f2<$100 | UNiTY esportsavg 76.5¢ | $37.7 | $45.84 | +$6.9 | 52% 9138-8532 (17670) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Gatorianavg 17.6¢ | $36.26 | $14.4 | -$21.86 | 38% 3184-5183 (8367) |
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$451.65
Value
$468.09
PnL
+$16.43
Record
53%
2366-2080 (4446)
Invested
$483.98
Value
$355.93
PnL
-$28.35
Record
46%
7925-9338 (17263)
poshposh<$100Invested
$75.72
Value
$86.07
PnL
+$10.34
Record
59%
9909-6885 (16794)
Invested
$37.7
Value
$45.84
PnL
+$6.9
Record
52%
9138-8532 (17670)
Invested
$36.26
Value
$14.4
PnL
-$21.86
Record
38%
3184-5183 (8367)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.