Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs maybe (BO3) - CCT Europe Group Stage

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold maybe (89%) · maybe at 71¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 10

G2 Ares30¢maybe70¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

maybe

Consensus Traders

maybe 89%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$286.23

Smart Money Entry

48.3¢ → 70.5¢

+46% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

Neutralmaybe at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

maybe

8 of 9 top traders (89%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

G2 Ares30%

maybe71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

maybe8 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,259

Combined PnL+$295.59

G2 Ares1 trader

Total Value$19.58

Total Shares51

Combined PnL-$9.36

maybe — 89%G2 Ares — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on maybe. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrmaybe 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000maybe 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
31 319113331313111ARB<$100	maybeavg 46.2¢	$758.68	$845.16	+$86.48	39% 32-51 (83)
└ maybe leg	maybeavg 46.2¢	$441.72	$673.52	+$231.8
└ G2 Ares leg	G2 Aresavg 54.5¢	$316.95	$171.63	-$145.32
PU purplegatto	maybeavg 46.3¢	$422.28	$483.29	+$61	69% 2572-1165 (3737)
CI cigarettes	maybeavg 43.7¢	$389.88	$473.24	+$83.36	52% 5324-4829 (10153)
SU suitcase6628	maybeavg 56.4¢	$242.37	$315.98	+$73.6	64% 150-86 (236)
38 38791873984189	maybeavg 43.8¢	$219.9	$266.06	+$46.16	48% 802-884 (1686)
GA Gaditima	maybeavg 53.2¢	$127.67	$154.9	+$27.23	47% 66-75 (141)
alpheclabs2	maybeavg 66¢	$143.88	$140.61	-$3.27	47% 68-77 (145)
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	G2 Aresavg 30.5¢	$109.85	$108.19	+$15.84	23% 150-497 (647)
└ G2 Ares leg	G2 Aresavg 30.5¢	$56.85	$54.96	-$1.89
└ maybe leg	maybeavg 52.7¢	$39.82	$53.23	+$17.73
PA Pan9X<$100	maybeavg 43.5¢	$18.28	$22.26	+$3.98	48% 414-448 (862)
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100	G2 Aresavg 56.9¢	$28.93	$19.58	-$9.36	48% 30-33 (63)
LR lryyy<$100	maybeavg 37¢	$8.14	$11.66	+$3.52	50% 141-140 (281)

319113331313111ARB<$100

maybe

Invested

$758.68

Value

$845.16

PnL

+$86.48

Record

39%

32-51 (83)

Both legs:

maybe$441.7246.2¢+$231.8

G2 Ares$316.9554.5¢-$145.32

purplegatto

maybe

Invested

$422.28

Value

$483.29

PnL

+$61

Record

69%

2572-1165 (3737)

cigarettes

maybe

Invested

$389.88

Value

$473.24

PnL

+$83.36

Record

52%

5324-4829 (10153)

suitcase6628

maybe

Invested

$242.37

Value

$315.98

PnL

+$73.6

Record

64%

150-86 (236)

38791873984189

maybe

Invested

$219.9

Value

$266.06

PnL

+$46.16

Record

48%

802-884 (1686)

Gaditima

maybe

Invested

$127.67

Value

$154.9

PnL

+$27.23

Record

47%

66-75 (141)

alpheclabs2

maybe

Invested

$143.88

Value

$140.61

PnL

-$3.27

Record

47%

68-77 (145)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

G2 Ares

Invested

$109.85

Value

$108.19

PnL

+$15.84

Record

23%

150-497 (647)

Both legs:

G2 Ares$56.8530.5¢-$1.89

maybe$39.8252.7¢+$17.73

Pan9X<$100

maybe

Invested

$18.28

Value

$22.26

PnL

+$3.98

Record

48%

414-448 (862)

glennyorkshireCTR<$100

G2 Ares

Invested

$28.93

Value

$19.58

PnL

-$9.36

Record

48%

30-33 (63)

lryyy<$100

maybe

Invested

$8.14

Value

$11.66

PnL

+$3.52

Record

50%

141-140 (281)

Research grade

Neutralmaybe at 71%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

maybe

8 of 9 top traders (89%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on maybe. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrmaybe 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000maybe 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that maybe wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.