Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Lunacy Team - Map 2 Winner
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold G2 Ares (60%) · G2 Ares at 100¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 11
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Neutral
G2 Ares
5
G2 Ares 60%
$6.4K
$147.68
77.3¢ → 100¢
+29% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralG2 Ares at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
31 319113331313111 | G2 Aresavg 72.4¢ | $3.7K | $3.9K | +$215.9 | 50% 61-60 (121) |
0X 0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314CTR | Lunacy Teamavg 44.5¢ | $1.4K | $1.8K | +$396.84 | 12% 17-125 (142) |
VP Vps1 | G2 Aresavg 99.9¢ | $862.74 | $371.35 | -$491.39 | 86% 86-14 (100) |
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | G2 Aresavg 72.7¢ | $251.03 | $271.95 | +$20.92 | 65% 53-28 (81) |
 alpheclabs2CTR<$100 | Lunacy Teamavg 42¢ | $15.15 | $20.56 | +$5.41 | 46% 112-132 (244) |
Invested
$3,697.19
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$215.9
Record
50%
61-60 (121)
Invested
$1,406.65
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$396.84
Record
12%
17-125 (142)
Invested
$862.74
Value
$371.35
PnL
-$491.39
Record
86%
86-14 (100)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$251.03
Value
$271.95
PnL
+$20.92
Record
65%
53-28 (81)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100Invested
$15.15
Value
$20.56
PnL
+$5.41
Record
46%
112-132 (244)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.