Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Lunacy Team, while the market favors G2 Ares (74%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Lunacy Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group D
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Lunacy Team (100%) · Lunacy Team at 26¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Lunacy Team
3
Lunacy Team 100%
2 arb excluded
$1.3K
$41.71
54.5¢ → 26¢
-52% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidLunacy Team at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors G2 Ares 74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
31 319113331313111ARB<$100 | Lunacy Teamavg 52.1¢ | $616.96 | $581.43 | -$35.53 | 51% 61-59 (120) |
| └ Lunacy Team leg | Lunacy Teamavg 52.1¢ | $449.04 | $357.82 | -$91.22 | |
| └ G2 Ares leg | G2 Aresavg 43.9¢ | $167.92 | $223.61 | +$55.68 | |
38 38791873984189CTR | Lunacy Teamavg 56.5¢ | $682.71 | $326.46 | +$19.82 | 48% 1286-1384 (2670) |
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100 | G2 Aresavg 41.7¢ | $284.38 | $307.24 | +$22.86 | 65% 52-28 (80) |
| └ G2 Ares leg | G2 Aresavg 41.7¢ | $149.33 | $195.08 | +$45.75 | |
| └ Lunacy Team leg | Lunacy Teamavg 54.8¢ | $135.05 | $112.16 | -$22.89 | |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Lunacy Teamavg 47¢ | $47 | $65 | +$18 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Lunacy Teamavg 56.4¢ | $56.08 | $19.83 | +$3.89 | 48% 654-705 (1359) |
Invested
$616.96
Value
$581.43
PnL
-$35.53
Record
51%
61-59 (120)
Both legs:
Invested
$682.71
Value
$326.46
PnL
+$19.82
Record
48%
1286-1384 (2670)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100Invested
$284.38
Value
$307.24
PnL
+$22.86
Record
65%
52-28 (80)
Both legs:
Invested
$47
Value
$65
PnL
+$18
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
Invested
$56.08
Value
$19.83
PnL
+$3.89
Record
48%
654-705 (1359)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
26.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.