Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5)

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold G2 (55%) · G2 at 64¢ · $31K held · ends Nov 13

Team Falcons37¢G263¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

G2 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$31.5K

Combined PnL

$587.49

Smart Money Entry

60.2¢ → 63.5¢

+5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralG2 at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Team Falcons37%

G264%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

G26 traders

Total Value$25.9K

Total Shares41,344

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Team Falcons5 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares14,711

Combined PnL-$434.74

G2 — 55%Team Falcons — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on G2. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Team Falcons) and the top 1000 (9 on G2) disagree here.

sniperG2 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrTeam Falcons 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedTeam Falcons 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000G2 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	G2avg 61.9¢	$11.6K	$11.9K	+$297.48	55% 149-120 (269)
Neimuking	G2avg 60¢	$6.6K	$6.8K	+$220.81	— 3-15 (18)
PA Partyarty91CTR	Team Falconsavg 40¢	$4.0K	$3.6K	-$350	3% 2-78 (80)
FeedTheBigBird	G2avg 57¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$194.25	62% 16-10 (26)
VI vibing123	G2avg 58¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$127.43	62% 1115-670 (1785)
HU humbleboy	G2avg 59¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$67.69	0% 0-124 (124)
Stickman22	G2avg 56.9¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$114.56	— 8-6 (14)
VeryLucky888CTR	Team Falconsavg 36.8¢	$893.61	$885.74	-$7.87	52% 836-757 (1593)
relativesignificanceCTR	Team Falconsavg 40.5¢	$849.84	$775.51	-$74.33	55% 152-122 (274)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Team Falconsavg 50¢	$200	$198	-$2	82% 96-21 (117)
└ G2 leg	G2avg 50¢	$100	$124	+$24
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 50¢	$100	$74	-$26
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Team Falconsavg 37¢	$49.95	$49.28	-$0.68	30% 74-169 (243)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Team Falconsavg 40¢	$21.34	$19.47	-$1.87	41% 299-422 (721)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

Invested

$11,608.56

Value

$11.9K

PnL

+$297.48

Record

55%

149-120 (269)

Neimuking

Invested

$6,624.44

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$220.81

Record

—

3-15 (18)

Partyarty91CTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$350

Record

2-78 (80)

FeedTheBigBird

Invested

$2,214.44

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$194.25

Record

62%

16-10 (26)

vibing123

Invested

$1,847.71

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$127.43

Record

62%

1115-670 (1785)

humbleboy

Invested

$1,331.3

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$67.69

Record

0-124 (124)

Stickman22

Invested

$1,265.66

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$114.56

Record

—

8-6 (14)

VeryLucky888CTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$893.61

Value

$885.74

PnL

-$7.87

Record

52%

836-757 (1593)

relativesignificanceCTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$849.84

Value

$775.51

PnL

-$74.33

Record

55%

152-122 (274)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Team Falcons

Invested

$200

Value

$198

PnL

-$2

Record

82%

96-21 (117)

Both legs:

G2$10050¢+$24

Team Falcons$10050¢-$26

biying99999CTR<$100

Team Falcons

Invested

$49.95

Value

$49.28

PnL

-$0.68

Record

30%

74-169 (243)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Team Falcons

Invested

$21.34

Value

$19.47

PnL

-$1.87

Record

41%

299-422 (721)

Research grade

NeutralG2 at 64%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on G2. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Team Falcons) and the top 1000 (9 on G2) disagree here.

sniperG2 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrTeam Falcons 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedTeam Falcons 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000G2 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that G2 wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.