Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold G2, while the market favors Team Falcons (69%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold G2 (78%) · G2 at 32¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
G2
9
G2 78%
$23.8K
$169.86
31.5¢ → 31.5¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralG2 at 32%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Team Falcons 69%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+21 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
78% of non-arb traders are on G2. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KateBollingerCTR | G2avg 32¢ | $9.6K | $9.6K | -$0 | 11% 11-91 (102) |
RA Rayaya | Team Falconsavg 69¢ | $4.1K | $4.1K | -$60 | — 10-7 (17) |
 NeimukingCTR | G2avg 31¢ | $3.7K | $3.8K | +$120 | — 3-15 (18) |
VI vibing123CTR | G2avg 31¢ | $3.6K | $3.7K | +$115.1 | 62% 1115-670 (1785) |
NO nobody2somebodyCTR | G2avg 31¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$0 | — 6-4 (10) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | G2avg 31¢ | $559.26 | $559.26 | +$0 | 41% 293-414 (707) |
 relativesignificanceCTR | G2avg 32¢ | $401.41 | $401.41 | +$0 | 55% 152-122 (274) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Team Falconsavg 69¢ | $400.86 | $395.3 | -$5.56 | 61% 969-610 (1579) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | G2avg 31¢ | $21.13 | $21.45 | +$0.32 | 54% 1032-892 (1924) |
KateBollingerCTRInvested
$9,599.98
Value
$9.6K
PnL
-$0
Record
11%
11-91 (102)
Invested
$4,139.99
Value
$4.1K
PnL
-$60
Record
—
10-7 (17)
NeimukingCTRInvested
$3,720
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$120
Record
—
3-15 (18)
Invested
$3,567.96
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$115.1
Record
62%
1115-670 (1785)
Invested
$1,200
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$0
Record
—
6-4 (10)
Invested
$559.26
Value
$559.26
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
293-414 (707)
relativesignificanceCTRInvested
$401.41
Value
$401.41
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
152-122 (274)
Invested
$400.86
Value
$395.3
PnL
-$5.56
Record
61%
969-610 (1579)
Invested
$21.13
Value
$21.45
PnL
+$0.32
Record
54%
1032-892 (1924)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.