Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold GenOne (44%) · GenOne at 59¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 12

GenOne59¢Leo Team41¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

GenOne

Consensus Traders

GenOne 44%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.1K

Combined PnL

-$521.34

Smart Money Entry

69.7¢ → 58.5¢

-16% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralGenOne at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

GenOne

4 of 9 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

GenOne59%

Leo Team42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

GenOne4 traders

Total Value$9.3K

Total Shares11,415

Combined PnL-$474.85

Leo Team5 traders

Total Value$465.55

Total Shares1,025

Combined PnL-$46.49

GenOne — 44%Leo Team — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on GenOne. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGenOne 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000GenOne 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	GenOneavg 71.1¢	$6.2K	$6.1K	-$148.24	56% 3895-3063 (6958)
JohnLKellyJr	GenOneavg 63.7¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$23.18	59% 13-9 (22)
LI Liquidifier	GenOneavg 74.3¢	$1.2K	$989.46	-$257.25	13% 13-88 (101)
NO NotJumpCTR	Leo Teamavg 50¢	$262.5	$262.5	+$0	54% 428-364 (792)
31 319113331313111	GenOneavg 76.6¢	$1.6K	$218.18	-$46.19	57% 104-80 (184)
Future-Tarot-TraderARB<$100	GenOneavg 86.3¢	$1.2K	$214.48	-$38.38	49% 83-88 (171)
└ GenOne leg	GenOneavg 86.3¢	$133.36	$116.69	-$315.35
└ Leo Team leg	Leo Teamavg 21.3¢	$84.96	$97.79	+$276.97
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Leo Teamavg 25.4¢	$85.57	$126.54	+$40.97	37% 527-909 (1436)
poshposhARB<$100	GenOneavg 63.6¢	$78.53	$79.82	+$1.29	47% 509-574 (1083)
└ GenOne leg	GenOneavg 63.6¢	$48.32	$44.83	-$3.49
└ Leo Team leg	Leo Teamavg 35.4¢	$30.21	$34.99	+$4.78
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Leo Teamavg 37.7¢	$97.05	$48.74	-$48.31	41% 543-780 (1323)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR<$100	Leo Teamavg 27.1¢	$55.57	$16.4	-$39.17	64% 93-53 (146)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Leo Teamavg 35¢	$11.35	$11.38	+$0.02	44% 375-478 (853)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

GenOne

Invested

$6,245.38

Value

$6.1K

PnL

-$148.24

Record

56%

3895-3063 (6958)

JohnLKellyJr

GenOne

Invested

$2,048.81

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$23.18

Record

59%

13-9 (22)

Liquidifier

GenOne

Invested

$1,246.7

Value

$989.46

PnL

-$257.25

Record

13%

13-88 (101)

NotJumpCTR

Leo Team

Invested

$262.5

Value

$262.5

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

428-364 (792)

319113331313111

GenOne

Invested

$1,619.54

Value

$218.18

PnL

-$46.19

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

Future-Tarot-TraderARB<$100

GenOne

Invested

$1,237.7

Value

$214.48

PnL

-$38.38

Record

49%

83-88 (171)

Both legs:

GenOne$133.3686.3¢-$315.35

Leo Team$84.9621.3¢+$276.97

topdogbigboiCTR

Leo Team

Invested

$85.57

Value

$126.54

PnL

+$40.97

Record

37%

527-909 (1436)

poshposhARB<$100

GenOne

Invested

$78.53

Value

$79.82

PnL

+$1.29

Record

47%

509-574 (1083)

Both legs:

GenOne$48.3263.6¢-$3.49

Leo Team$30.2135.4¢+$4.78

sentrioCTR<$100

Leo Team

Invested

$97.05

Value

$48.74

PnL

-$48.31

Record

41%

543-780 (1323)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR<$100

Leo Team

Invested

$55.57

Value

$16.4

PnL

-$39.17

Record

64%

93-53 (146)

lryyyCTR<$100

Leo Team

Invested

$11.35

Value

$11.38

PnL

+$0.02

Record

44%

375-478 (853)

Research grade

NeutralGenOne at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

GenOne

4 of 9 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on GenOne. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGenOne 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000GenOne 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that GenOne wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.