Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Group Stage

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Leo Team (45%) · Leo Team at 66¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12

GenOne35¢Leo Team65¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Leo Team

Consensus Traders

Leo Team 45%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$49.69

Smart Money Entry

56.9¢ → 65.5¢

+15% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralLeo Team at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Leo Team

5 of 11 top traders (45%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

GenOne35%

Leo Team66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Leo Team5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,911

Combined PnL+$59.68

GenOne6 traders

Total Value$471.11

Total Shares1,271

Combined PnL-$109.37

Leo Team — 45%GenOne — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Leo Team. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGenOne 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000GenOne 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Leo Teamavg 57.8¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$9.46	56% 3895-3063 (6958)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Leo Teamavg 58.2¢	$678.87	$633.14	-$20.24	63% 92-53 (145)
└ Leo Team leg	Leo Teamavg 58.2¢	$422.26	$431.64	+$10.89
└ GenOne leg	GenOneavg 46.3¢	$230.49	$201.5	-$31.13
31 319113331313111	Leo Teamavg 52.3¢	$362.61	$436.15	+$73.53	57% 104-79 (183)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Leo Teamavg 50¢	$262.5	$259.88	-$2.62	54% 427-363 (790)
└ Leo Team leg	Leo Teamavg 50¢	$131.25	$170.63	+$39.38
└ GenOne leg	GenOneavg 50¢	$131.25	$89.25	-$42
CI cigarettesCTR	GenOneavg 45¢	$202.5	$153	-$49.5	53% 6080-5448 (11528)
LI LiquidifierCTR	GenOneavg 42¢	$116.47	$109.53	-$6.93	13% 13-88 (101)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	GenOneavg 44.8¢	$127.94	$97.02	-$30.91	37% 527-907 (1434)
poshposhCTR<$100	GenOneavg 45¢	$80.52	$69.21	-$11.31	47% 508-573 (1081)
38 38791873984189<$100	Leo Teamavg 58.9¢	$64.76	$64.35	-$0.41	48% 2125-2324 (4449)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Leo Teamavg 65¢	$39	$35.1	-$3.9	32% 292-618 (910)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	GenOneavg 45¢	$45	$34	-$11	46% 158-182 (340)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Leo Teamavg 60¢	$9	$8.92	-$0.08	41% 247-360 (607)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	GenOneavg 46¢	$8.06	$8.34	+$0.28	49% 1071-1127 (2198)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Leo Team

Invested

$1,393.27

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$9.46

Record

56%

3895-3063 (6958)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Leo Team

Invested

$678.87

Value

$633.14

PnL

-$20.24

Record

63%

92-53 (145)

Both legs:

Leo Team$422.2658.2¢+$10.89

GenOne$230.4946.3¢-$31.13

319113331313111

Leo Team

Invested

$362.61

Value

$436.15

PnL

+$73.53

Record

57%

104-79 (183)

NotJumpARB<$100

Leo Team

Invested

$262.5

Value

$259.88

PnL

-$2.62

Record

54%

427-363 (790)

Both legs:

Leo Team$131.2550¢+$39.38

GenOne$131.2550¢-$42

cigarettesCTR

GenOne

Invested

$202.5

Value

$153

PnL

-$49.5

Record

53%

6080-5448 (11528)

LiquidifierCTR

GenOne

Invested

$116.47

Value

$109.53

PnL

-$6.93

Record

13%

13-88 (101)

topdogbigboiCTR

GenOne

Invested

$127.94

Value

$97.02

PnL

-$30.91

Record

37%

527-907 (1434)

poshposhCTR<$100

GenOne

Invested

$80.52

Value

$69.21

PnL

-$11.31

Record

47%

508-573 (1081)

38791873984189<$100

Leo Team

Invested

$64.76

Value

$64.35

PnL

-$0.41

Record

48%

2125-2324 (4449)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Leo Team

Invested

$39

Value

$35.1

PnL

-$3.9

Record

32%

292-618 (910)

GaditimaCTR<$100

GenOne

Invested

$45

Value

$34

PnL

-$11

Record

46%

158-182 (340)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Leo Team

Invested

Value

$8.92

PnL

-$0.08

Record

41%

247-360 (607)

Pan9XCTR<$100

GenOne

Invested

$8.06

Value

$8.34

PnL

+$0.28

Record

49%

1071-1127 (2198)

Research grade

NeutralLeo Team at 66%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Leo Team

5 of 11 top traders (45%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Leo Team. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGenOne 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000GenOne 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Leo Team wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.