Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Inner Circle Academy - Map 1 Winner
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Inner Circle Academy (100%) · Inner Circle Academy at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Inner Circle Academy
8
Inner Circle Academy 100%
$3.0K
$443.17
67.2¢ → 100¢
+49% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralInner Circle Academy at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI BillBenter2026 | Inner Circle Academyavg 66.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$214.6 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
31 319113331313111 | Inner Circle Academyavg 63.1¢ | $853.91 | $1.0K | +$164.85 | 51% 61-59 (120) |
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | Inner Circle Academyavg 64.1¢ | $395.97 | $440.66 | +$44.7 | 65% 52-28 (80) |
VP Vps1 | Inner Circle Academyavg 99.9¢ | $192.17 | $192.26 | +$0.1 | 86% 86-14 (100) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Inner Circle Academyavg 65.5¢ | $44.78 | $54.85 | +$10.07 | 53% 1788-1590 (3378) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | Inner Circle Academyavg 66.9¢ | $42.35 | $49.98 | +$8.73 | 60% 641-427 (1068) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Inner Circle Academyavg 76¢ | $12.16 | $12.08 | -$0.08 | 48% 1286-1384 (2670) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Inner Circle Academyavg 96¢ | $4.84 | $5.04 | +$0.2 | 28% 179-466 (645) |
Invested
$1,083.39
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$214.6
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Invested
$853.91
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$164.85
Record
51%
61-59 (120)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$395.97
Value
$440.66
PnL
+$44.7
Record
65%
52-28 (80)
Invested
$192.17
Value
$192.26
PnL
+$0.1
Record
86%
86-14 (100)
Invested
$44.78
Value
$54.85
PnL
+$10.07
Record
53%
1788-1590 (3378)
Invested
$42.35
Value
$49.98
PnL
+$8.73
Record
60%
641-427 (1068)
Invested
$12.16
Value
$12.08
PnL
-$0.08
Record
48%
1286-1384 (2670)
Invested
$4.84
Value
$5.04
PnL
+$0.2
Record
28%
179-466 (645)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
BillBenter2026
Inner Circle Academy — $1.3K
319113331313111
Inner Circle Academy — $1.0K
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f
Inner Circle Academy — $440.66
Vps1
Inner Circle Academy — $192.26
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Inner Circle Academy — $54.85
lonmi2511
Inner Circle Academy — $49.98
38791873984189
Inner Circle Academy — $12.08
pauleta23
Inner Circle Academy — $5.04