Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Inner Circle Academy, while the market favors GenOne (53%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Inner Circle Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Group Stage
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Inner Circle Academy (20%) · Inner Circle Academy at 48¢ · $846 held · ends Nov 11
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Neutral
Inner Circle Academy
5
Inner Circle Academy 20%
$845.76
$4.99
Research grade
NeutralInner Circle Academy at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors GenOne 53%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Inner Circle Academy. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VI vibing123CTR | Inner Circle Academyavg 47¢ | $524.88 | $530.46 | +$5.58 | 63% 1092-650 (1742) |
 VeryLucky888 | GenOneavg 53¢ | $243 | $183.75 | -$1.75 | 52% 440-413 (853) |
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F | GenOneavg 52.2¢ | $110.23 | $111.83 | +$1.6 | 55% 132-109 (241) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | GenOneavg 53¢ | $10.6 | $10.5 | -$0.1 | 48% 654-703 (1357) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | GenOneavg 55¢ | $9.56 | $9.22 | -$0.35 | 22% 33-115 (148) |
Invested
$524.88
Value
$530.46
PnL
+$5.58
Record
63%
1092-650 (1742)
VeryLucky888Invested
$243
Value
$183.75
PnL
-$1.75
Record
52%
440-413 (853)
Invested
$110.23
Value
$111.83
PnL
+$1.6
Record
55%
132-109 (241)
Invested
$10.6
Value
$10.5
PnL
-$0.1
Record
48%
654-703 (1357)
Invested
$9.56
Value
$9.22
PnL
-$0.35
Record
22%
33-115 (148)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.