Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Balkan Outlaws - Map 2 Winner

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Balkan Outlaws (71%) · Balkan Outlaws at 100¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 14

GenOne<1¢Balkan Outlaws>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Balkan Outlaws

Consensus Traders

Balkan Outlaws 71%

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

58.4¢ → 100¢

+71% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralBalkan Outlaws at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Balkan Outlaws

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

GenOne0%

Balkan Outlaws100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Balkan Outlaws10 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares5,475

Combined PnL+$1.1K

GenOne4 traders

Total Value$356.77

Total Shares923

Combined PnL-$50.98

Balkan Outlaws — 71%GenOne — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BillBenter2026	Balkan Outlawsavg 47¢	$1.8K	$2.5K	+$822.24	29% 235-576 (811)
Future-Tarot-Trader	Balkan Outlawsavg 72.5¢	$931.2	$826.52	+$318.47	54% 140-117 (257)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Balkan Outlawsavg 68.9¢	$2.8K	$596.44	-$8.97	61% 155-100 (255)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Balkan Outlawsavg 50.2¢	$357.9	$452.91	+$95.01	50% 2502-2460 (4962)
ARTEM-DZYUBA	Balkan Outlawsavg 99¢	$357.29	$359.1	+$1.8	82% 696-150 (846)
NO NotJump	Balkan Outlawsavg 50¢	$262.5	$262.5	+$0	52% 808-738 (1546)
alpheclabs2CTR	GenOneavg 46¢	$173.75	$122.67	-$51.08	45% 280-340 (620)
SH shiifoo	Balkan Outlawsavg 75¢	$132	$93.88	-$38.12	61% 1421-900 (2321)
poshposhCTR	GenOneavg 40.9¢	$113.8	$91.75	-$22.04	48% 1089-1166 (2255)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	GenOneavg 33.1¢	$70.96	$85.41	+$14.45	37% 1015-1693 (2708)
38 38791873984189<$100	Balkan Outlawsavg 94.5¢	$68.13	$71.01	+$2.88	48% 3195-3498 (6693)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Balkan Outlawsavg 46¢	$63.6	$58.76	-$4.84	38% 531-876 (1407)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	GenOneavg 50.6¢	$49.24	$56.93	+$7.69	45% 794-973 (1767)
31 319113331313111	Balkan Outlawsavg 74¢	$5.3K	$14.99	-$74.01	57% 173-131 (304)

BillBenter2026

Balkan Outlaws

Invested

$1,810.92

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$822.24

Record

29%

235-576 (811)

Future-Tarot-Trader

Balkan Outlaws

Invested

$931.2

Value

$826.52

PnL

+$318.47

Record

54%

140-117 (257)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Balkan Outlaws

Invested

$2,782.67

Value

$596.44

PnL

-$8.97

Record

61%

155-100 (255)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Balkan Outlaws

Invested

$357.9

Value

$452.91

PnL

+$95.01

Record

50%

2502-2460 (4962)

ARTEM-DZYUBA

Balkan Outlaws

Invested

$357.29

Value

$359.1

PnL

+$1.8

Record

82%

696-150 (846)

NotJump

Balkan Outlaws

Invested

$262.5

Value

$262.5

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

808-738 (1546)

alpheclabs2CTR

GenOne

Invested

$173.75

Value

$122.67

PnL

-$51.08

Record

45%

280-340 (620)

shiifoo

Balkan Outlaws

Invested

$132

Value

$93.88

PnL

-$38.12

Record

61%

1421-900 (2321)

poshposhCTR

GenOne

Invested

$113.8

Value

$91.75

PnL

-$22.04

Record

48%

1089-1166 (2255)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

GenOne

Invested

$70.96

Value

$85.41

PnL

+$14.45

Record

37%

1015-1693 (2708)

38791873984189<$100

Balkan Outlaws

Invested

$68.13

Value

$71.01

PnL

+$2.88

Record

48%

3195-3498 (6693)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Balkan Outlaws

Invested

$63.6

Value

$58.76

PnL

-$4.84

Record

38%

531-876 (1407)

lryyyCTR<$100

GenOne

Invested

$49.24

Value

$56.93

PnL

+$7.69

Record

45%

794-973 (1767)

319113331313111

Balkan Outlaws

Invested

$5,339.02

Value

$14.99

PnL

-$74.01

Record

57%

173-131 (304)

Research grade

NeutralBalkan Outlaws at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Balkan Outlaws

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Balkan Outlaws wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.