Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BakS eSports - Map 2 Winner

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold BakS eSports (55%) · BakS eSports at 100¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 30

GenOne<1¢BakS eSports>99¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

BakS eSports

Consensus Traders

BakS eSports 55%

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

-$142.29

Smart Money Entry

80.3¢ → 100¢

+24% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralBakS eSports at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BakS eSports

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

GenOne0%

BakS eSports100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

BakS eSports6 traders

Total Value$8.8K

Total Shares8,783

Combined PnL+$1.2K

GenOne5 traders

Total Value$76.54

Total Shares3,916

Combined PnL$-1.3K

BakS eSports — 55%GenOne — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on BakS eSports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBakS eSports 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpBakS eSports 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrGenOne 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedBakS eSports 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000BakS eSports 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JohnLKellyJr	BakS eSportsavg 63.9¢	$2.4K	$3.7K	+$1.3K	52% 1221-1119 (2340)
46 467j6yj	BakS eSportsavg 97.8¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$75.65	97% 3293-115 (3408)
BI BillBenter2026	BakS eSportsavg 86.2¢	$1.0K	$694.26	-$335.03	58% 18576-13636 (32212)
TE testBruno2	BakS eSportsavg 77.8¢	$312.57	$338.35	+$25.77	57% 848-628 (1476)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	BakS eSportsavg 71¢	$255.58	$264.84	+$9.26	53% 2366-2080 (4446)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	BakS eSportsavg 66.9¢	$143.06	$196.03	+$52.97	52% 13717-12522 (26239)
0X 0x4f2CTR<$100	GenOneavg 29¢	$99.99	$74.67	-$25.33	52% 9138-8532 (17670)
LO lonmi2511CTR	GenOneavg 34.2¢	$1.0K	$1.53	$-1.0K	62% 1124-677 (1801)
PA panpidaras1CTR	GenOneavg 36¢	$200	$0.28	-$199.72	52% 194-176 (370)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	GenOneavg 29.6¢	$27.52	$0.05	-$27.47	38% 3184-5183 (8367)
poshposhCTR<$100	GenOneavg 34.9¢	$14.77	$0.02	-$14.75	59% 9909-6885 (16794)

JohnLKellyJr

BakS eSports

Invested

$2,377.24

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

52%

1221-1119 (2340)

467j6yj

BakS eSports

Invested

$3,493.98

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$75.65

Record

97%

3293-115 (3408)

BillBenter2026

BakS eSports

Invested

$1,029.29

Value

$694.26

PnL

-$335.03

Record

58%

18576-13636 (32212)

testBruno2

BakS eSports

Invested

$312.57

Value

$338.35

PnL

+$25.77

Record

57%

848-628 (1476)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

BakS eSports

Invested

$255.58

Value

$264.84

PnL

+$9.26

Record

53%

2366-2080 (4446)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

BakS eSports

Invested

$143.06

Value

$196.03

PnL

+$52.97

Record

52%

13717-12522 (26239)

0x4f2CTR<$100

GenOne

Invested

$99.99

Value

$74.67

PnL

-$25.33

Record

52%

9138-8532 (17670)

lonmi2511CTR

GenOne

Invested

$1,044.48

Value

$1.53

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

62%

1124-677 (1801)

panpidaras1CTR

GenOne

Invested

$200

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$199.72

Record

52%

194-176 (370)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

GenOne

Invested

$27.52

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$27.47

Record

38%

3184-5183 (8367)

poshposhCTR<$100

GenOne

Invested

$14.77

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$14.75

Record

59%

9909-6885 (16794)

Research grade

NeutralBakS eSports at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

BakS eSports

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on BakS eSports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBakS eSports 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpBakS eSports 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrGenOne 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedBakS eSports 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000BakS eSports 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BakS eSports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.