Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold FUT Esports, while the market favors Nemiga (61%). 16 of 23 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Nemiga - Map 2 Winner

16 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold FUT Esports (70%) · FUT Esports at 39¢ · $128K held · ends Oct 29

FUT Esports39¢Nemiga61¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FUT Esports

Consensus Traders

FUT Esports 70%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$127.5K

Combined PnL

$1.9K

Smart Money Entry

59.2¢ → 39¢

-34% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralFUT Esports at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FUT Esports

16 of 23 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Nemiga 61%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

FUT Esports39%

Nemiga61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nemiga7 traders

Total Value$38.1K

Total Shares71,390

Combined PnL+$4.7K

FUT Esports16 traders

Total Value$33.8K

Total Shares61,769

Combined PnL$-2.8K

Nemiga — 30%FUT Esports — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Nemigaavg 35.2¢	$25.5K	$33.3K	+$7.8K	54% 56006-48139 (104145)
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 35.2¢	$15.0K	$26.0K	+$11.0K
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 55.9¢	$10.5K	$7.3K	$-3.2K
PN pnhctARB<$100	FUT Esportsavg 55.6¢	$16.5K	$17.6K	+$1.1K	54% 474-405 (879)
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 38.5¢	$6.9K	$10.9K	+$4.0K
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 55.6¢	$9.6K	$6.7K	$-2.9K
II iii252	Nemigaavg 46.9¢	$9.3K	$11.5K	+$2.2K	57% 1112-856 (1968)
JohnLKellyJrCTR	FUT Esportsavg 57.7¢	$9.4K	$10.0K	+$612.24	52% 1210-1098 (2308)
cruzNBA	Nemigaavg 50.5¢	$9.4K	$9.6K	+$273.23	42% 396-554 (950)
AA aaaa298	Nemigaavg 39.3¢	$5.9K	$8.6K	+$2.7K	58% 760-540 (1300)
YI yishiwuchengCTR	FUT Esportsavg 58¢	$9.2K	$6.2K	$-3.0K	51% 1783-1713 (3496)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	FUT Esportsavg 50.5¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$110.11	52% 13638-12469 (26107)
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 44.1¢	$1.4K	$2.0K	+$549.24
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 50.5¢	$1.9K	$1.5K	-$439.13
IV Ivan948	Nemigaavg 41.6¢	$3.4K	$3.1K	-$255.46	42% 56-76 (132)
SU suleng66CTR	FUT Esportsavg 50.4¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$6.83	64% 196-112 (308)
cs2.quantCTR	FUT Esportsavg 76.6¢	$3.0K	$2.7K	-$279.23	58% 82-59 (141)
JO jole24CTR	FUT Esportsavg 69¢	$2.8K	$2.6K	-$180	44% 1018-1273 (2291)
13 1337zzz1337CTR	FUT Esportsavg 51.3¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$37.1	52% 211-197 (408)
0xHunterOkCTR	FUT Esportsavg 69¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$69.32	54% 245-210 (455)
FK fkAL	Nemigaavg 48¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$25.16	63% 2015-1188 (3203)
UN Unknownpoluy	Nemigaavg 31¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$161.88	43% 93-121 (214)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	FUT Esportsavg 63.7¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$177.24	58% 18480-13568 (32048)
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 55.9¢	$595.62	$650.26	+$54.64
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 63.7¢	$598.48	$366.6	-$231.88
hasobidaleCTR	FUT Esportsavg 68.8¢	$894.99	$922.99	+$28	66% 211-107 (318)
0X 0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR	FUT Esportsavg 60.4¢	$914.01	$877.54	-$36.47	46% 899-1068 (1967)
FA facaigegeCTR	FUT Esportsavg 51¢	$815.98	$823.98	+$8	48% 388-417 (805)
RU Ruler11CTR	FUT Esportsavg 46¢	$502.31	$562.37	+$60.06	51% 291-279 (570)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	FUT Esportsavg 71¢	$497	$497	+$0	51% 1349-1291 (2640)
0X 0x7759a35ac38c416f21a661ea0a9ce206790d995f	Nemigaavg 62¢	$700	$491.94	-$101.74	74% 226-81 (307)
Gamer-GirlCTR	FUT Esportsavg 55.4¢	$269.98	$284.9	+$14.92	43% 1780-2348 (4128)
RR rroosterCTR	FUT Esportsavg 65.7¢	$197	$181.5	-$15.5	63% 1324-786 (2110)

RN1ARB<$100

Nemiga

Invested

$25,522.06

Value

$33.3K

PnL

+$7.8K

Record

54%

56006-48139 (104145)

Both legs:

Nemiga$15,007.2335.2¢+$11.0K

FUT Esports$10,514.8355.9¢$-3.2K

pnhctARB<$100

FUT Esports

Invested

$16,461.61

Value

$17.6K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

54%

474-405 (879)

Both legs:

Nemiga$6,851.7138.5¢+$4.0K

FUT Esports$9,609.955.6¢$-2.9K

iii252

Nemiga

Invested

$9,315.84

Value

$11.5K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

57%

1112-856 (1968)

JohnLKellyJrCTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$9,380.23

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$612.24

Record

52%

1210-1098 (2308)

cruzNBA

Nemiga

Invested

$9,371.54

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$273.23

Record

42%

396-554 (950)

aaaa298

Nemiga

Invested

$5,859.82

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

58%

760-540 (1300)

yishiwuchengCTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$9,247.27

Value

$6.2K

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

51%

1783-1713 (3496)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

FUT Esports

Invested

$3,367.63

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$110.11

Record

52%

13638-12469 (26107)

Both legs:

Nemiga$1,437.6944.1¢+$549.24

FUT Esports$1,929.9450.5¢-$439.13

Ivan948

Nemiga

Invested

$3,389.72

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$255.46

Record

42%

56-76 (132)

suleng66CTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$3,000

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$6.83

Record

64%

196-112 (308)

cs2.quantCTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$3,000

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$279.23

Record

58%

82-59 (141)

jole24CTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$2,760

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$180

Record

44%

1018-1273 (2291)

1337zzz1337CTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$2,500

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$37.1

Record

52%

211-197 (408)

0xHunterOkCTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$2,391.52

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$69.32

Record

54%

245-210 (455)

fkAL

Nemiga

Invested

$2,414.96

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$25.16

Record

63%

2015-1188 (3203)

Unknownpoluy

Nemiga

Invested

$2,517.72

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$161.88

Record

43%

93-121 (214)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

FUT Esports

Invested

$1,194.1

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$177.24

Record

58%

18480-13568 (32048)

Both legs:

Nemiga$595.6255.9¢+$54.64

FUT Esports$598.4863.7¢-$231.88

hasobidaleCTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$894.99

Value

$922.99

PnL

+$28

Record

66%

211-107 (318)

0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$914.01

Value

$877.54

PnL

-$36.47

Record

46%

899-1068 (1967)

facaigegeCTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$815.98

Value

$823.98

PnL

+$8

Record

48%

388-417 (805)

Ruler11CTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$502.31

Value

$562.37

PnL

+$60.06

Record

51%

291-279 (570)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$497

Value

$497

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1349-1291 (2640)

0x7759a35ac38c416f21a661ea0a9ce206790d995f

Nemiga

Invested

$700

Value

$491.94

PnL

-$101.74

Record

74%

226-81 (307)

Gamer-GirlCTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$269.98

Value

$284.9

PnL

+$14.92

Record

43%

1780-2348 (4128)

rroosterCTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$197

Value

$181.5

PnL

-$15.5

Record

63%

1324-786 (2110)

Research grade

NeutralFUT Esports at 39%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

FUT Esports

16 of 23 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Nemiga 61%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FUT Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.2%

39.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$142.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

242.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.