Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold FUT Esports, while the market favors Nemiga (59%). 13 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Nemiga - Map 1 Winner

13 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold FUT Esports (72%) · FUT Esports at 42¢ · $127K held · ends Oct 29

FUT Esports42¢Nemiga58¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

FUT Esports

Consensus Traders

FUT Esports 72%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$126.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.8K

Smart Money Entry

71.8¢ → 41.5¢

-42% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

Research candidateFUT Esports at 42%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FUT Esports

13 of 18 top traders (72%)Underdog side (market favors Nemiga 59%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

FUT Esports42%

Nemiga59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FUT Esports13 traders

Total Value$34.7K

Total Shares49,657

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Nemiga5 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares12,865

Combined PnL-$246.99

FUT Esports — 72%Nemiga — 28%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Nemigaavg 32.8¢	$20.1K	$22.4K	+$2.3K	54% 55997-48130 (104127)
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 32.8¢	$12.1K	$16.6K	+$4.5K
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 76.2¢	$8.0K	$5.8K	$-2.2K
PN pnhctARB<$100	FUT Esportsavg 69.5¢	$21.9K	$21.5K	-$368.11	54% 474-405 (879)
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 34.4¢	$7.7K	$13.0K	+$5.4K
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 69.5¢	$14.2K	$8.5K	$-5.7K
II iii252ARB<$100	FUT Esportsavg 61.9¢	$15.9K	$19.6K	+$3.7K	57% 1112-856 (1968)
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 19.9¢	$3.9K	$11.6K	+$7.7K
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 61.9¢	$12.0K	$8.0K	$-4.0K
AA aaaa298ARB<$100	FUT Esportsavg 72.5¢	$17.7K	$18.3K	+$631.76	58% 760-540 (1300)
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 72.5¢	$14.6K	$11.1K	$-3.5K
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 19¢	$3.0K	$7.2K	+$4.2K
RE redvinnyCTR	FUT Esportsavg 86.4¢	$11.5K	$11.1K	-$390.09	75% 1477-498 (1975)
0X 0x246bE8A4e3805E318801B79AD1Ee1268d5fbFB5b-1773192326048CTR	FUT Esportsavg 77.2¢	$8.0K	$7.7K	-$283.29	69% 251-113 (364)
JohnLKellyJrCTR	FUT Esportsavg 56.4¢	$7.1K	$6.9K	-$179.86	52% 1210-1098 (2308)
cruzNBAARB<$100	Nemigaavg 28.4¢	$4.7K	$4.6K	-$34.27	42% 396-554 (950)
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 28.4¢	$3.0K	$2.8K	-$199.47
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 67¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$165.2
FA facaigegeCTR	FUT Esportsavg 69¢	$4.5K	$3.9K	-$649.27	48% 388-417 (805)
ReformedxCTR	FUT Esportsavg 61¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$80	52% 803-749 (1552)
UN Unknownpoluy	Nemigaavg 30.2¢	$2.4K	$2.2K	-$216.27	43% 93-121 (214)
IV Ivan948	Nemigaavg 37¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$21.33	42% 56-76 (132)
Q7 q7662504CTR	FUT Esportsavg 89.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$33.11	89% 371-48 (419)
BI BillBenter2026CTR	FUT Esportsavg 59.9¢	$980.63	$958.5	-$22.13	58% 18479-13561 (32040)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100	FUT Esportsavg 50.7¢	$301	$519.9	+$218.9	51% 1349-1289 (2638)
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 16¢	$112	$315	+$203
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 50.7¢	$189	$204.9	+$15.9
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100	Nemigaavg 43.9¢	$685.1	$444.29	-$40.81	54% 1061-915 (1976)
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 43.9¢	$364.55	$294.65	-$57.75
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 53.9¢	$124.97	$149.64	+$16.94
YI yishiwuchengARB<$100	FUT Esportsavg 57.3¢	$426.1	$380.63	-$45.47	51% 1783-1713 (3496)
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 57.3¢	$391.68	$283.8	-$107.89
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 20.8¢	$34.41	$96.83	+$62.42
PA panpidaras1CTR	FUT Esportsavg 65.9¢	$314.28	$198.16	-$23.77	52% 183-167 (350)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Nemigaavg 36.5¢	$143.48	$143.45	-$0.03	53% 5541-4910 (10451)
GR GroolCTR	FUT Esportsavg 56¢	$112	$111	-$1	54% 1597-1373 (2970)
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Nemigaavg 35.9¢	$87.63	$84.97	+$0.77	57% 13319-10177 (23496)
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 35.9¢	$58.47	$57.85	-$0.52
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 61.4¢	$25.83	$27.12	+$1.29
RR rroosterCTR<$100	FUT Esportsavg 70¢	$69.99	$70.49	+$0.5	63% 1324-786 (2110)
AS astapzippo<$100	Nemigaavg 44¢	$59.4	$58.73	-$0.67	56% 2133-1677 (3810)
CH chillhouse123CTR	FUT Esportsavg 63.3¢	$162.76	$54.33	-$46.51	52% 3680-3337 (7017)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Nemigaavg 46¢	$21.57	$12.9	-$8.67	49% 18804-19198 (38002)

RN1ARB<$100

Nemiga

Invested

$20,135.88

Value

$22.4K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

54%

55997-48130 (104127)

Both legs:

Nemiga$12,095.7732.8¢+$4.5K

FUT Esports$8,040.176.2¢$-2.2K

pnhctARB<$100

FUT Esports

Invested

$21,896.99

Value

$21.5K

PnL

-$368.11

Record

54%

474-405 (879)

Both legs:

Nemiga$7,663.7434.4¢+$5.4K

FUT Esports$14,233.2569.5¢$-5.7K

iii252ARB<$100

FUT Esports

Invested

$15,914.75

Value

$19.6K

PnL

+$3.7K

Record

57%

1112-856 (1968)

Both legs:

Nemiga$3,932.3719.9¢+$7.7K

FUT Esports$11,982.3861.9¢$-4.0K

aaaa298ARB<$100

FUT Esports

Invested

$17,658.58

Value

$18.3K

PnL

+$631.76

Record

58%

760-540 (1300)

Both legs:

FUT Esports$14,614.7272.5¢$-3.5K

Nemiga$3,043.8619¢+$4.2K

redvinnyCTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$11,506.14

Value

$11.1K

PnL

-$390.09

Record

75%

1477-498 (1975)

0x246bE8A4e3805E318801B79AD1Ee1268d5fbFB5b-1773192326048CTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$8,000

Value

$7.7K

PnL

-$283.29

Record

69%

251-113 (364)

JohnLKellyJrCTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$7,088.74

Value

$6.9K

PnL

-$179.86

Record

52%

1210-1098 (2308)

cruzNBAARB<$100

Nemiga

Invested

$4,664.08

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$34.27

Record

42%

396-554 (950)

Both legs:

Nemiga$2,969.2928.4¢-$199.47

FUT Esports$1,694.7967¢+$165.2

facaigegeCTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$4,515.27

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$649.27

Record

48%

388-417 (805)

ReformedxCTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$2,440

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$80

Record

52%

803-749 (1552)

Unknownpoluy

Nemiga

Invested

$2,422.82

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$216.27

Record

43%

93-121 (214)

Ivan948

Nemiga

Invested

$1,578.42

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$21.33

Record

42%

56-76 (132)

q7662504CTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$1,219.87

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$33.11

Record

89%

371-48 (419)

BillBenter2026CTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$980.63

Value

$958.5

PnL

-$22.13

Record

58%

18479-13561 (32040)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100

FUT Esports

Invested

$301

Value

$519.9

PnL

+$218.9

Record

51%

1349-1289 (2638)

Both legs:

Nemiga$11216¢+$203

FUT Esports$18950.7¢+$15.9

TommyLeePeecaARB<$100

Nemiga

Invested

$685.1

Value

$444.29

PnL

-$40.81

Record

54%

1061-915 (1976)

Both legs:

Nemiga$364.5543.9¢-$57.75

FUT Esports$124.9753.9¢+$16.94

yishiwuchengARB<$100

FUT Esports

Invested

$426.1

Value

$380.63

PnL

-$45.47

Record

51%

1783-1713 (3496)

Both legs:

FUT Esports$391.6857.3¢-$107.89

Nemiga$34.4120.8¢+$62.42

panpidaras1CTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$314.28

Value

$198.16

PnL

-$23.77

Record

52%

183-167 (350)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Nemiga

Invested

$143.48

Value

$143.45

PnL

-$0.03

Record

53%

5541-4910 (10451)

GroolCTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$112

Value

$111

PnL

-$1

Record

54%

1597-1373 (2970)

ghorrockARB<$100

Nemiga

Invested

$87.63

Value

$84.97

PnL

+$0.77

Record

57%

13319-10177 (23496)

Both legs:

Nemiga$58.4735.9¢-$0.52

FUT Esports$25.8361.4¢+$1.29

rroosterCTR<$100

FUT Esports

Invested

$69.99

Value

$70.49

PnL

+$0.5

Record

63%

1324-786 (2110)

astapzippo<$100

Nemiga

Invested

$59.4

Value

$58.73

PnL

-$0.67

Record

56%

2133-1677 (3810)

chillhouse123CTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$162.76

Value

$54.33

PnL

-$46.51

Record

52%

3680-3337 (7017)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Nemiga

Invested

$21.57

Value

$12.9

PnL

-$8.67

Record

49%

18804-19198 (38002)

Research grade

Research candidateFUT Esports at 42%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

FUT Esports

13 of 18 top traders (72%)Underdog side (market favors Nemiga 59%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FUT Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.