Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Nemiga (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Playoffs
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold FUT Esports (100%) · FUT Esports at 71¢ · $15K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
FUT Esports
5
FUT Esports 100%
$14.9K
$373.64
70.6¢ → 71¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralFUT Esports at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TR TrippleEX | FUT Esportsavg 71¢ | $7.1K | $7.3K | +$150 | 58% 287-212 (499) |
AN AnibalAugustoSardinha | FUT Esportsavg 70¢ | $4.7K | $4.8K | +$166.65 | 51% 66-64 (130) |
 hasobidale | FUT Esportsavg 71¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$22.5 | 66% 210-106 (316) |
 relativesignificance | FUT Esportsavg 71.4¢ | $1.4K | $987.41 | -$0.51 | 57% 90-67 (157) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | FUT Esportsavg 69¢ | $689.98 | $724.98 | +$35 | 53% 5507-4852 (10359) |
Invested
$7,100
Value
$7.3K
PnL
+$150
Record
58%
287-212 (499)
Invested
$4,666.2
Value
$4.8K
PnL
+$166.65
Record
51%
66-64 (130)
hasobidaleInvested
$1,065
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$22.5
Record
66%
210-106 (316)
relativesignificanceInvested
$1,413.45
Value
$987.41
PnL
-$0.51
Record
57%
90-67 (157)
Invested
$689.98
Value
$724.98
PnL
+$35
Record
53%
5507-4852 (10359)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.