Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold MOUZ (40%) · MOUZ at 56¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
MOUZ
5
MOUZ 40%
$5.0K
-$20.72
58¢ → 56.5¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralMOUZ at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on MOUZ. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RA Rayaya | MOUZavg 58¢ | $2.3K | $2.2K | -$80 | — 4-3 (7) |
 drainedandpoorCTR | FUT Esportsavg 42¢ | $1.9K | $2.0K | +$50.27 | 47% 414-462 (876) |
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR | FUT Esportsavg 43.1¢ | $457.32 | $461.51 | +$4.2 | 54% 135-113 (248) |
 l..messi | MOUZavg 57.5¢ | $199.98 | $197.89 | -$2.09 | 4% 9-238 (247) |
 Stickman22CTR | FUT Esportsavg 41¢ | $134.33 | $141.23 | +$6.89 | — 4-3 (7) |
Invested
$2,319.99
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$80
Record
—
4-3 (7)
drainedandpoorCTRInvested
$1,912.01
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$50.27
Record
47%
414-462 (876)
Invested
$457.32
Value
$461.51
PnL
+$4.2
Record
54%
135-113 (248)
l..messiInvested
$199.98
Value
$197.89
PnL
-$2.09
Record
4%
9-238 (247)
Stickman22CTRInvested
$134.33
Value
$141.23
PnL
+$6.89
Record
—
4-3 (7)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.