Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold FUT Esports, while the market favors MOUZ (79%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold FUT Esports (67%) · FUT Esports at 22¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

FUT Esports22¢MOUZ78¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

FUT Esports

Consensus Traders

FUT Esports 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$27.12

Smart Money Entry

21¢ → 21.5¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidFUT Esports at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FUT Esports

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors MOUZ 79%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

FUT Esports22%

MOUZ79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FUT Esports4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares5,868

Combined PnL+$23.98

MOUZ2 traders

Total Value$174.59

Total Shares221

Combined PnL+$3.15

FUT Esports — 67%MOUZ — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on FUT Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on MOUZ) and the top 1000 (6 on FUT Esports) disagree here.

sharpMOUZ 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperFUT Esports 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFUT Esports 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedMOUZ 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000FUT Esports 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WE weeeskiesCTR	FUT Esportsavg 21¢	$845.25	$845.25	-$0	— 3-7 (10)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	FUT Esportsavg 21¢	$333.9	$333.9	-$0	56% 3892-3057 (6949)
SU suntoriARB<$100	FUT Esportsavg 20¢	$293.83	$307.33	+$13.5	47% 1458-1629 (3087)
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 20¢	$193.84	$207.97	+$14.13
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 79¢	$99.99	$99.36	-$0.63
NO NotJumpARB<$100	FUT Esportsavg 43.3¢	$444.99	$221.25	-$0	54% 410-348 (758)
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 50¢	$84.38	$133.31	+$121.43
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 43.3¢	$181.46	$87.94	-$121.43
forsenxd	MOUZavg 77¢	$121.18	$124.33	+$3.15	48% 359-382 (741)
0X 0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947aCTR	FUT Esportsavg 20¢	$261.37	$53.5	+$24.89	— 1-7 (8)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	MOUZavg 79¢	$50.26	$50.26	+$0	25% 173-515 (688)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	FUT Esportsavg 25.9¢	$33.81	$1.48	-$0.92	53% 866-756 (1622)

weeeskiesCTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$845.25

Value

$845.25

PnL

-$0

Record

—

3-7 (10)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$333.9

Value

$333.9

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

3892-3057 (6949)

suntoriARB<$100

FUT Esports

Invested

$293.83

Value

$307.33

PnL

+$13.5

Record

47%

1458-1629 (3087)

Both legs:

FUT Esports$193.8420¢+$14.13

MOUZ$99.9979¢-$0.63

NotJumpARB<$100

FUT Esports

Invested

$444.99

Value

$221.25

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

410-348 (758)

Both legs:

MOUZ$84.3850¢+$121.43

FUT Esports$181.4643.3¢-$121.43

forsenxd

MOUZ

Invested

$121.18

Value

$124.33

PnL

+$3.15

Record

48%

359-382 (741)

0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947aCTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$261.37

Value

$53.5

PnL

+$24.89

Record

—

1-7 (8)

BillBenter2026<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$50.26

Value

$50.26

PnL

+$0

Record

25%

173-515 (688)

ghorrockCTR<$100

FUT Esports

Invested

$33.81

Value

$1.48

PnL

-$0.92

Record

53%

866-756 (1622)

Research grade

AvoidFUT Esports at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

FUT Esports

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors MOUZ 79%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on FUT Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on MOUZ) and the top 1000 (6 on FUT Esports) disagree here.

sharpMOUZ 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperFUT Esports 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFUT Esports 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedMOUZ 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000FUT Esports 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FUT Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.4%

21.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$327.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

427.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.