Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold FUT Esports, while the market favors MOUZ (84%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold FUT Esports (80%) · FUT Esports at 17¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
FUT Esports
5
FUT Esports 80%
$7.2K
$801.63
14.2¢ → 16.5¢
+16% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidFUT Esports at 17%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors MOUZ 84%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on FUT Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 drainedandpoorCTR | FUT Esportsavg 14¢ | $5.4K | $6.2K | +$773.6 | 47% 414-462 (876) |
 polaroid14CTR | FUT Esportsavg 16¢ | $320 | $320 | +$0 | — 3-5 (8) |
 Stickman22CTR | FUT Esportsavg 15¢ | $300 | $320 | +$20 | — 4-3 (7) |
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR | FUT Esportsavg 16¢ | $237.57 | $244.99 | +$7.42 | 54% 135-114 (249) |
GH ghorrock | MOUZavg 83.4¢ | $153.03 | $128.58 | +$0.61 | 55% 641-522 (1163) |
drainedandpoorCTRInvested
$5,415.17
Value
$6.2K
PnL
+$773.6
Record
47%
414-462 (876)
polaroid14CTRInvested
$320
Value
$320
PnL
+$0
Record
—
3-5 (8)
Stickman22CTRInvested
$300
Value
$320
PnL
+$20
Record
—
4-3 (7)
Invested
$237.57
Value
$244.99
PnL
+$7.42
Record
54%
135-114 (249)
Invested
$153.03
Value
$128.58
PnL
+$0.61
Record
55%
641-522 (1163)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
16.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.