Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (77%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Games Total: O/U 2.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 24¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12

Over77¢Under23¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$-2.3K

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 23.5¢

-56% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 77%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over77%

Under24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares4,892

Combined PnL+$783.54

Under5 traders

Total Value$264.86

Total Shares6,287

Combined PnL$-3.1K

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

ctrUnder 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
YI yishiwucheng	Overavg 47.6¢	$1.8K	$2.2K	+$375.3	58% 45-33 (78)
vtcchampion52	Overavg 37.6¢	$235.23	$463.17	+$227.94	48% 853-909 (1762)
AM ameisgoat11	Overavg 43¢	$141.2	$216.7	+$75.5	37% 428-735 (1163)
SU suntori	Overavg 60¢	$223.09	$176.38	+$3.33	47% 1401-1566 (2967)
alpheclabs2	Overavg 31¢	$73.16	$174.64	+$101.48	44% 159-200 (359)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 53¢	$2.2K	$164.68	$-2.0K	52% 661-616 (1277)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Underavg 53¢	$530	$40	-$490	43% 21-28 (49)
BI biying99999CTR	Underavg 53¢	$499.79	$37.72	-$462.07	30% 67-158 (225)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Underavg 31.4¢	$9.98	$14.46	+$4.48	45% 341-422 (763)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Underavg 50¢	$450	$8	-$98	95% 76-4 (80)

yishiwucheng

Over

Invested

$1,833.84

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$375.3

Record

58%

45-33 (78)

vtcchampion52

Over

Invested

$235.23

Value

$463.17

PnL

+$227.94

Record

48%

853-909 (1762)

ameisgoat11

Over

Invested

$141.2

Value

$216.7

PnL

+$75.5

Record

37%

428-735 (1163)

suntori

Over

Invested

$223.09

Value

$176.38

PnL

+$3.33

Record

47%

1401-1566 (2967)

alpheclabs2

Over

Invested

$73.16

Value

$174.64

PnL

+$101.48

Record

44%

159-200 (359)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$2,182.02

Value

$164.68

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

52%

661-616 (1277)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Under

Invested

$530

Value

$40

PnL

-$490

Record

43%

21-28 (49)

biying99999CTR

Under

Invested

$499.79

Value

$37.72

PnL

-$462.07

Record

30%

67-158 (225)

lryyyCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.98

Value

$14.46

PnL

+$4.48

Record

45%

341-422 (763)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Under

Invested

$450

Value

PnL

-$98

Record

95%

76-4 (80)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 77%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

ctrUnder 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.4%

23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$293.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

393.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.