Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Vitality (60%) · Vitality at 67¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Vitality
5
Vitality 60%
$6.4K
-$9.71
65.8¢ → 66.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralVitality at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Vitality. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stickman22 | Vitalityavg 66¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$0 | — 4-3 (7) |
JU JuiceFarm | Vitalityavg 67¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$20 | 65% 15-8 (23) |
WI Wiretransferxyz | Vitalityavg 64¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$35.9 | 56% 382-300 (682) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | FURIAavg 35¢ | $873.08 | $848.13 | -$24.95 | 52% 455-428 (883) |
WE westing.v1CTR<$100 | FURIAavg 34¢ | $44.69 | $44.03 | -$0.66 | 15% 12-70 (82) |
Stickman22Invested
$2,970
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$0
Record
—
4-3 (7)
Invested
$1,339.99
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$20
Record
65%
15-8 (23)
Invested
$1,148.69
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$35.9
Record
56%
382-300 (682)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$873.08
Value
$848.13
PnL
-$24.95
Record
52%
455-428 (883)
Invested
$44.69
Value
$44.03
PnL
-$0.66
Record
15%
12-70 (82)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.