Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold FURIA (67%) · FURIA at 71¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
FURIA
6
FURIA 67%
$6.0K
-$1.47
68.9¢ → 70.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralFURIA at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on FURIA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RA Rayaya | FURIAavg 69¢ | $3.2K | $3.3K | +$23.51 | 60% 1150-757 (1907) |
 StudyPrediction | FURIAavg 70¢ | $2.1K | $995.23 | -$12.94 | 54% 4508-3898 (8406) |
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR | TYLOOavg 30.3¢ | $865 | $842.75 | -$22.25 | 55% 124-100 (224) |
 hasobidale | FURIAavg 67.6¢ | $701.28 | $695.14 | +$9.43 | 66% 202-103 (305) |
AS astapzippo | FURIAavg 67¢ | $131.82 | $138.71 | +$6.89 | 56% 2103-1639 (3742) |
LU LucasCosta.CTR | TYLOOavg 32.3¢ | $109.8 | $100.3 | -$6.1 | 41% 324-467 (791) |
Invested
$3,244.1
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$23.51
Record
60%
1150-757 (1907)
StudyPredictionInvested
$2,072.1
Value
$995.23
PnL
-$12.94
Record
54%
4508-3898 (8406)
Invested
$865
Value
$842.75
PnL
-$22.25
Record
55%
124-100 (224)
hasobidaleInvested
$701.28
Value
$695.14
PnL
+$9.43
Record
66%
202-103 (305)
Invested
$131.82
Value
$138.71
PnL
+$6.89
Record
56%
2103-1639 (3742)
Invested
$109.8
Value
$100.3
PnL
-$6.1
Record
41%
324-467 (791)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.