Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TYLOO - Map 2 Winner
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold FURIA (57%) · FURIA at 86¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
FURIA
7
FURIA 57%
$5.1K
$23.45
84.6¢ → 85.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralFURIA at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AS astapzippo | FURIAavg 83¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$16 | 56% 2106-1641 (3747) |
AA aaaa298CTR | TYLOOavg 17¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$37.74 | 58% 727-522 (1249) |
 RN1 | FURIAavg 85.6¢ | $982.22 | $980.69 | -$1.54 | 54% 55325-47376 (102701) |
PN pnhct | FURIAavg 86¢ | $795.35 | $803.61 | +$8.26 | 54% 440-376 (816) |
 CORGIICTR | TYLOOavg 14¢ | $528.27 | $547.13 | +$18.87 | 41% 381-551 (932) |
OM omnibus-076daa | FURIAavg 86¢ | $257.99 | $251.99 | -$6 | 49% 18399-18822 (37221) |
SP sportteryqqCTR | TYLOOavg 13.1¢ | $114 | $139.6 | +$25.6 | 40% 408-618 (1026) |
Invested
$1,328
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$16
Record
56%
2106-1641 (3747)
Invested
$1,082.07
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$37.74
Record
58%
727-522 (1249)
RN1Invested
$982.22
Value
$980.69
PnL
-$1.54
Record
54%
55325-47376 (102701)
Invested
$795.35
Value
$803.61
PnL
+$8.26
Record
54%
440-376 (816)
CORGIICTRInvested
$528.27
Value
$547.13
PnL
+$18.87
Record
41%
381-551 (932)
Invested
$257.99
Value
$251.99
PnL
-$6
Record
49%
18399-18822 (37221)
Invested
$114
Value
$139.6
PnL
+$25.6
Record
40%
408-618 (1026)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.