Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TYLOO - Map 1 Winner

10 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold FURIA (50%) · FURIA at 100¢ · $67K held · ends Oct 27

FURIA>99¢TYLOO<1¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FURIA

Consensus Traders

FURIA 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$66.7K

Combined PnL

-$713.1

Smart Money Entry

84.6¢ → 100¢

+18% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralFURIA at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FURIA

10 of 20 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

FURIA100%

TYLOO0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FURIA10 traders

Total Value$55.4K

Total Shares63,541

Combined PnL-$439.45

TYLOO10 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares28,457

Combined PnL-$273.65

FURIA — 50%TYLOO — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JohnLKellyJr	FURIAavg 84.9¢	$27.4K	$26.0K	$-1.4K	53% 1185-1057 (2242)
RN1	FURIAavg 79.1¢	$12.4K	$13.9K	+$1.5K	54% 55325-47376 (102701)
PN pnhct	FURIAavg 89.6¢	$6.6K	$6.5K	-$86.53	54% 440-376 (816)
0X 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540	FURIAavg 85.8¢	$6.3K	$5.9K	-$386.81	54% 97-84 (181)
AA aaaa298ARB<$100	FURIAavg 83.1¢	$6.7K	$5.6K	$-1.1K	58% 727-522 (1249)
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 83.1¢	$4.1K	$4.4K	+$363.68
└ TYLOO leg	TYLOOavg 21.2¢	$2.6K	$1.2K	$-1.5K
BU BunCaCham	FURIAavg 99.8¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$2.25	98% 2548-65 (2613)
FA fantasy7788CTR	TYLOOavg 18.3¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$106.87	43% 71-95 (166)
GT gt7238ARB<$100	TYLOOavg 24.7¢	$1.0K	$901.75	-$101.05	45% 583-707 (1290)
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 78¢	$452.4	$466.9	+$14.5
└ TYLOO leg	TYLOOavg 24.7¢	$550.4	$434.85	-$115.55
A8 a8999CTR	TYLOOavg 20¢	$794.84	$774.97	-$19.87	44% 1067-1356 (2423)
latvian.demonCTR	TYLOOavg 25.8¢	$974	$737.09	-$236.91	54% 617-528 (1145)
SP sportteryqqCTR	TYLOOavg 15.6¢	$449	$560.63	+$111.63	40% 408-618 (1026)
0X 0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR	TYLOOavg 24.8¢	$672.5	$529.82	-$142.68	46% 878-1048 (1926)
MaktMan	FURIAavg 82¢	$522.44	$512.89	-$9.56	53% 35-31 (66)
FR frohp5	FURIAavg 91.2¢	$500	$496.09	-$3.91	65% 1955-1041 (2996)
FA facaigegeCTR	TYLOOavg 25¢	$527.74	$411.64	-$116.1	48% 377-405 (782)
0X 0x7759a35ac38c416f21a661ea0a9ce206790d995f	FURIAavg 80.2¢	$200	$200.75	+$0.75	74% 218-78 (296)
0X 0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8	FURIAavg 85¢	$148.75	$140.88	-$7.88	58% 78-57 (135)
poshposhCTR<$100	TYLOOavg 13¢	$55.12	$82.68	+$27.56	60% 9092-6016 (15108)
AC acorpCTR<$100	TYLOOavg 19¢	$25.27	$25.94	+$0.67	49% 611-624 (1235)
VeryLucky888<$100	FURIAavg 77¢	$4.39	$5.67	+$1.29	58% 40396-29173 (69569)
noreasapaCTR<$100	TYLOOavg 0.1¢	$3.57	$1.78	-$1.78	92% 3532-325 (3857)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	TYLOOavg 15¢	$3.04	$0.03	-$3.01	49% 18399-18822 (37221)

JohnLKellyJr

FURIA

Invested

$27,368.8

Value

$26.0K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

53%

1185-1057 (2242)

RN1

FURIA

Invested

$12,397.4

Value

$13.9K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

54%

55325-47376 (102701)

pnhct

FURIA

Invested

$6,590.05

Value

$6.5K

PnL

-$86.53

Record

54%

440-376 (816)

0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540

FURIA

Invested

$6,294.62

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$386.81

Record

54%

97-84 (181)

aaaa298ARB<$100

FURIA

Invested

$6,709.61

Value

$5.6K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

58%

727-522 (1249)

Both legs:

FURIA$4,065.9983.1¢+$363.68

TYLOO$2,643.6221.2¢$-1.5K

BunCaCham

FURIA

Invested

$1,783.83

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$2.25

Record

98%

2548-65 (2613)

fantasy7788CTR

TYLOO

Invested

$1,619.36

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$106.87

Record

43%

71-95 (166)

gt7238ARB<$100

TYLOO

Invested

$1,002.8

Value

$901.75

PnL

-$101.05

Record

45%

583-707 (1290)

Both legs:

FURIA$452.478¢+$14.5

TYLOO$550.424.7¢-$115.55

a8999CTR

TYLOO

Invested

$794.84

Value

$774.97

PnL

-$19.87

Record

44%

1067-1356 (2423)

latvian.demonCTR

TYLOO

Invested

$974

Value

$737.09

PnL

-$236.91

Record

54%

617-528 (1145)

sportteryqqCTR

TYLOO

Invested

$449

Value

$560.63

PnL

+$111.63

Record

40%

408-618 (1026)

0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR

TYLOO

Invested

$672.5

Value

$529.82

PnL

-$142.68

Record

46%

878-1048 (1926)

MaktMan

FURIA

Invested

$522.44

Value

$512.89

PnL

-$9.56

Record

53%

35-31 (66)

frohp5

FURIA

Invested

$500

Value

$496.09

PnL

-$3.91

Record

65%

1955-1041 (2996)

facaigegeCTR

TYLOO

Invested

$527.74

Value

$411.64

PnL

-$116.1

Record

48%

377-405 (782)

0x7759a35ac38c416f21a661ea0a9ce206790d995f

FURIA

Invested

$200

Value

$200.75

PnL

+$0.75

Record

74%

218-78 (296)

0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8

FURIA

Invested

$148.75

Value

$140.88

PnL

-$7.88

Record

58%

78-57 (135)

poshposhCTR<$100

TYLOO

Invested

$55.12

Value

$82.68

PnL

+$27.56

Record

60%

9092-6016 (15108)

acorpCTR<$100

TYLOO

Invested

$25.27

Value

$25.94

PnL

+$0.67

Record

49%

611-624 (1235)

VeryLucky888<$100

FURIA

Invested

$4.39

Value

$5.67

PnL

+$1.29

Record

58%

40396-29173 (69569)

noreasapaCTR<$100

TYLOO

Invested

$3.57

Value

$1.78

PnL

-$1.78

Record

92%

3532-325 (3857)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

TYLOO

Invested

$3.04

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$3.01

Record

49%

18399-18822 (37221)

Research grade

NeutralFURIA at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

FURIA

10 of 20 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FURIA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.