Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold FaZe (67%) · FaZe at 59¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
FaZe
3
FaZe 67%
$4.4K
$112.19
59.4¢ → 59¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralFaZe at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740 | FaZeavg 59.4¢ | $4.3K | $4.3K | +$115.58 | 54% 325-278 (603) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | FURIAavg 40¢ | $150 | $150 | -$3.75 | 58% 42597-30998 (73595) |
 relativesignificance<$100 | FaZeavg 57¢ | $5.13 | $5.31 | +$0.36 | 56% 115-90 (205) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.