Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold FaZe, while the market favors FURIA (68%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold FaZe (33%) · FaZe at 33¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
FaZe
6
FaZe 33%
$8.4K
$276.16
31¢ → 32.5¢
+5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralFaZe at 33%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors FURIA 68%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on FaZe. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR | FaZeavg 31.1¢ | $6.0K | $6.3K | +$263.4 | 54% 321-276 (597) |
 Reformedx | FURIAavg 69¢ | $690 | $680 | -$10 | 52% 831-779 (1610) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | FURIAavg 68¢ | $680 | $675 | -$5 | 53% 5644-4980 (10624) |
 VeryLucky888 | FURIAavg 68¢ | $510 | $506.25 | -$3.75 | 58% 42088-30563 (72651) |
 relativesignificanceCTR | FaZeavg 27.7¢ | $201.43 | $233.54 | +$32.12 | 56% 110-87 (197) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | FURIAavg 68.6¢ | $38.96 | $38.35 | -$0.6 | 57% 13877-10647 (24524) |
Invested
$6,046.34
Value
$6.3K
PnL
+$263.4
Record
54%
321-276 (597)
ReformedxInvested
$690
Value
$680
PnL
-$10
Record
52%
831-779 (1610)
Invested
$680
Value
$675
PnL
-$5
Record
53%
5644-4980 (10624)
VeryLucky888Invested
$510
Value
$506.25
PnL
-$3.75
Record
58%
42088-30563 (72651)
relativesignificanceCTRInvested
$201.43
Value
$233.54
PnL
+$32.12
Record
56%
110-87 (197)
Invested
$38.96
Value
$38.35
PnL
-$0.6
Record
57%
13877-10647 (24524)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.