Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (50%). 0 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Games Total: O/U 2.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 50¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 14

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.7K

Combined PnL

$98.2

Smart Money Entry

49.9¢ → 50¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares16,627

Combined PnL+$98.83

Over3 traders

Total Value$34.27

Total Shares64

Combined PnL-$0.62

Under — 70%Over — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Underavg 50.2¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	-$12.73	53% 1335-1164 (2499)
YI yishiwucheng	Underavg 49.7¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$98.22	57% 82-61 (143)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$49.09	50% 2502-2460 (4962)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$833.79	$859.52	+$25.72
└ Over leg	Overavg 45¢	$300.35	$323.72	+$23.36
forsenxd	Underavg 49¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$22.56	48% 372-396 (768)
BI biying99999	Underavg 50¢	$580.29	$580.29	+$0	35% 103-192 (295)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 51¢	$407.99	$399.99	-$8	25% 337-1017 (1354)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Underavg 50.5¢	$124.59	$109.37	-$1.49	52% 808-738 (1546)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.5¢	$62.01	$62.58	+$0.42
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$48.69	$46.79	-$1.91
Kangta9393	Underavg 49.4¢	$100	$99.17	-$0.83	45% 30-37 (67)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 51.1¢	$27.6	$24.73	-$0.85	46% 2570-3056 (5626)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 50¢	$20	$19.6	-$0.4	41% 687-1004 (1691)
alpheclabs2<$100	Overavg 48¢	$5.33	$5.55	+$0.22	45% 280-340 (620)
nigiri99<$100	Overavg 50¢	$4	$4	+$0	52% 567-532 (1099)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$3,376.32

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$12.73

Record

53%

1335-1164 (2499)

yishiwucheng

Under

Invested

$2,726.9

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$98.22

Record

57%

82-61 (143)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,134.15

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$49.09

Record

50%

2502-2460 (4962)

Both legs:

Under$833.7950¢+$25.72

Over$300.3545¢+$23.36

forsenxd

Under

Invested

$1,105.31

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$22.56

Record

48%

372-396 (768)

biying99999

Under

Invested

$580.29

Value

$580.29

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

103-192 (295)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$407.99

Value

$399.99

PnL

-$8

Record

25%

337-1017 (1354)

NotJumpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$124.59

Value

$109.37

PnL

-$1.49

Record

52%

808-738 (1546)

Both legs:

Under$62.0150.5¢+$0.42

Over$48.6951¢-$1.91

Kangta9393

Under

Invested

$100

Value

$99.17

PnL

-$0.83

Record

45%

30-37 (67)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$27.6

Value

$24.73

PnL

-$0.85

Record

46%

2570-3056 (5626)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$19.6

PnL

-$0.4

Record

41%

687-1004 (1691)

alpheclabs2<$100

Over

Invested

$5.33

Value

$5.55

PnL

+$0.22

Record

45%

280-340 (620)

nigiri99<$100

Over

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

567-532 (1099)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.