Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Team Falcons (67%) · Team Falcons at 73¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 14

FURIA27¢Team Falcons73¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Falcons

Consensus Traders

Team Falcons 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

-$198.19

Smart Money Entry

76.9¢ → 73¢

-5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Falcons at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Falcons

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

FURIA27%

Team Falcons73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Falcons6 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares4,794

Combined PnL-$44.2

FURIA3 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares7,463

Combined PnL-$153.99

Team Falcons — 67%FURIA — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	FURIAavg 30.7¢	$3.4K	$2.7K	-$721.8	50% 2502-2460 (4962)
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 30.7¢	$2.9K	$1.9K	-$966.15
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 53.9¢	$514.85	$759.21	+$244.35
vtcchampion52	Team Falconsavg 80¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$13.92	48% 864-928 (1792)
RA RayayaCTR	FURIAavg 28¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$140	58% 14-10 (24)
forsenxd	Team Falconsavg 71¢	$803.97	$775.79	-$28.18	48% 372-396 (768)
relativesignificance	Team Falconsavg 72¢	$236.53	$233.25	-$3.29	54% 155-130 (285)
YI yishiwucheng	Team Falconsavg 74.5¢	$260.27	$184.27	-$1.52	57% 82-61 (143)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	FURIAavg 28¢	$100.39	$93.22	-$7.17	55% 162-133 (295)
WE weeeskies<$100	Team Falconsavg 72¢	$61.88	$63.6	+$1.72	42% 11-15 (26)
NO NotJumpCTR	FURIAavg 36.6¢	$131.16	$49.41	-$6.83	52% 808-738 (1546)
SU suntori<$100	Team Falconsavg 72¢	$9.58	$10.58	+$1	46% 2570-3056 (5626)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

FURIA

Invested

$3,427.45

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$721.8

Record

50%

2502-2460 (4962)

Both legs:

FURIA$2,912.630.7¢-$966.15

Team Falcons$514.8553.9¢+$244.35

vtcchampion52

Team Falcons

Invested

$2,402.98

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$13.92

Record

48%

864-928 (1792)

RayayaCTR

FURIA

Invested

$1,959.97

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$140

Record

58%

14-10 (24)

forsenxd

Team Falcons

Invested

$803.97

Value

$775.79

PnL

-$28.18

Record

48%

372-396 (768)

relativesignificance

Team Falcons

Invested

$236.53

Value

$233.25

PnL

-$3.29

Record

54%

155-130 (285)

yishiwucheng

Team Falcons

Invested

$260.27

Value

$184.27

PnL

-$1.52

Record

57%

82-61 (143)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

FURIA

Invested

$100.39

Value

$93.22

PnL

-$7.17

Record

55%

162-133 (295)

weeeskies<$100

Team Falcons

Invested

$61.88

Value

$63.6

PnL

+$1.72

Record

42%

11-15 (26)

NotJumpCTR

FURIA

Invested

$131.16

Value

$49.41

PnL

-$6.83

Record

52%

808-738 (1546)

suntori<$100

Team Falcons

Invested

$9.58

Value

$10.58

PnL

+$1

Record

46%

2570-3056 (5626)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Falcons at 73%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Team Falcons

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Falcons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.0%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.