Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Team Falcons, while the market favors FURIA (52%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Team Falcons (40%) · Team Falcons at 49¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 14

FURIA52¢Team Falcons48¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Falcons

Consensus Traders

Team Falcons 40%

Total Value

$20.3K

Combined PnL

$92.56

Smart Money Entry

48.1¢ → 48.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Falcons at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Falcons

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors FURIA 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

FURIA52%

Team Falcons49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Falcons4 traders

Total Value$12.6K

Total Shares25,889

Combined PnL+$113.2

FURIA6 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares15,062

Combined PnL-$20.64

Team Falcons — 40%FURIA — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WI WiretransferxyzCTR	Team Falconsavg 48¢	$8.6K	$8.7K	+$90.04	56% 388-305 (693)
one8tyfive	FURIAavg 52¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$26.62	— 10-5 (15)
0X 0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947a	FURIAavg 51.1¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$17.75	45% 13-16 (29)
Stickman22CTR	Team Falconsavg 49¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$22.5	57% 12-9 (21)
RA Rayaya	FURIAavg 51¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$16.87	64% 14-8 (22)
JO JohnnyWinsCTR	Team Falconsavg 47¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$47.16	4% 3-70 (73)
VeryLucky888	FURIAavg 53¢	$1.1K	$979.53	-$28.46	53% 1030-921 (1951)
MA manoamanoCTR	Team Falconsavg 49¢	$146.4	$144.91	-$1.49	54% 25-21 (46)
SU suntori<$100	FURIAavg 53¢	$4.76	$4.63	-$0.13	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	FURIAavg 50¢	$200	$2.06	-$0.04	75% 112-37 (149)

WiretransferxyzCTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$8,643.54

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$90.04

Record

56%

388-305 (693)

one8tyfive

FURIA

Invested

$2,768.96

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$26.62

Record

—

10-5 (15)

0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947a

FURIA

Invested

$2,273.74

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$17.75

Record

45%

13-16 (29)

Stickman22CTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$2,205

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$22.5

Record

57%

12-9 (21)

Rayaya

FURIA

Invested

$1,720.23

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$16.87

Record

64%

14-8 (22)

JohnnyWinsCTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$1,448.09

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$47.16

Record

3-70 (73)

VeryLucky888

FURIA

Invested

$1,063.73

Value

$979.53

PnL

-$28.46

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

manoamanoCTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$146.4

Value

$144.91

PnL

-$1.49

Record

54%

25-21 (46)

suntori<$100

FURIA

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.63

PnL

-$0.13

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

FURIA

Invested

$200

Value

$2.06

PnL

-$0.04

Record

75%

112-37 (149)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Falcons at 49%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Team Falcons

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors FURIA 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Falcons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.