Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs Nexus - Map 1 Winner

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold FORZE Reload (25%) · FORZE Reload at 71¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 15

FORZE Reload71¢Nexus29¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FORZE Reload

Consensus Traders

FORZE Reload 25%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$89.96

Research grade

NeutralFORZE Reload at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FORZE Reload

1 of 4 top traders (25%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

FORZE Reload71%

Nexus30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FORZE Reload1 trader

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,426

Combined PnL+$72.06

Nexus3 traders

Total Value$64.68

Total Shares134

Combined PnL+$17.91

FORZE Reload — 25%Nexus — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	FORZE Reloadavg 61.7¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$54.23	56% 4162-3255 (7417)
└ FORZE Reload leg	FORZE Reloadavg 61.7¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$267.39
└ Nexus leg	Nexusavg 38¢	$949.03	$735.88	-$213.16
BI BillBenter2026	FORZE Reloadavg 65.4¢	$933.59	$1.0K	+$72.06	33% 300-622 (922)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	FORZE Reloadavg 61¢	$441.83	$466.53	+$24.71	61% 196-126 (322)
└ FORZE Reload leg	FORZE Reloadavg 61¢	$294.12	$340.16	+$46.04
└ Nexus leg	Nexusavg 34.5¢	$147.7	$126.37	-$21.33
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Nexusavg 48.4¢	$282.5	$282.75	+$0.25	50% 1122-1124 (2246)
└ FORZE Reload leg	FORZE Reloadavg 50¢	$131.25	$156.19	+$24.94
└ Nexus leg	Nexusavg 48.4¢	$151.25	$126.56	-$24.69
31 319113331313111ARB<$100	FORZE Reloadavg 59¢	$747.21	$188.38	-$7.27	55% 203-164 (367)
└ FORZE Reload leg	FORZE Reloadavg 59¢	$106.14	$107.04	-$42.13
└ Nexus leg	Nexusavg 42.8¢	$85.91	$81.34	+$34.87
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Nexusavg 41¢	$102.33	$99.69	-$2.64	50% 2841-2879 (5720)
└ Nexus leg	Nexusavg 41¢	$58.39	$56.32	-$2.07
└ FORZE Reload leg	FORZE Reloadavg 61.3¢	$43.95	$43.38	-$0.57
poshposhCTR<$100	Nexusavg 40¢	$30.99	$37.78	+$6.79	49% 1311-1390 (2701)
Future-Tarot-TraderCTR<$100	Nexusavg 30.2¢	$40.54	$16.22	+$14.6	55% 163-133 (296)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Nexusavg 40.5¢	$14.17	$10.68	-$3.49	39% 1558-2440 (3998)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

FORZE Reload

Invested

$2,817.61

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$54.23

Record

56%

4162-3255 (7417)

Both legs:

FORZE Reload$1,868.5761.7¢+$267.39

Nexus$949.0338¢-$213.16

BillBenter2026

FORZE Reload

Invested

$933.59

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$72.06

Record

33%

300-622 (922)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

FORZE Reload

Invested

$441.83

Value

$466.53

PnL

+$24.71

Record

61%

196-126 (322)

Both legs:

FORZE Reload$294.1261¢+$46.04

Nexus$147.734.5¢-$21.33

NotJumpARB<$100

Nexus

Invested

$282.5

Value

$282.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

Both legs:

FORZE Reload$131.2550¢+$24.94

Nexus$151.2548.4¢-$24.69

319113331313111ARB<$100

FORZE Reload

Invested

$747.21

Value

$188.38

PnL

-$7.27

Record

55%

203-164 (367)

Both legs:

FORZE Reload$106.1459¢-$42.13

Nexus$85.9142.8¢+$34.87

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Nexus

Invested

$102.33

Value

$99.69

PnL

-$2.64

Record

50%

2841-2879 (5720)

Both legs:

Nexus$58.3941¢-$2.07

FORZE Reload$43.9561.3¢-$0.57

poshposhCTR<$100

Nexus

Invested

$30.99

Value

$37.78

PnL

+$6.79

Record

49%

1311-1390 (2701)

Future-Tarot-TraderCTR<$100

Nexus

Invested

$40.54

Value

$16.22

PnL

+$14.6

Record

55%

163-133 (296)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Nexus

Invested

$14.17

Value

$10.68

PnL

-$3.49

Record

39%

1558-2440 (3998)

Research grade

NeutralFORZE Reload at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

FORZE Reload

1 of 4 top traders (25%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FORZE Reload wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.